Courage Revelations: Nick Kurtz | Baseball prospectus

Translated by Pepe Latorre

We return with the series another year Revelations of value! As a reminder, for this series I’m going to talk about some hitters selected in the latter rounds of the fantasy league drafts who have far exceeded expectations. I will use all non-bid NFBC drafts for preseason ADP and FanGraphs’ Player Rater tool for earned dollar value rankings. Let’s get started!

Nick Kurtz1B, Athletics

ADP: 474.2

Dollars earned in the rankings: 44

As can be deduced from the above, ADP Kurtz was practically ignored in the realignment of the leagues last spring. Due to his ADP he was just behind Jason Heyward j Ryan blissfor God’s sake!

The lack of interest in Kurtz during the draft season was obviously not due to a lack of confidence in his abilities. But rather the belief that he would spend a large part of the season in the Minors. Opening day came just eight months after Kurtz was selected with the fourth overall pick in the draft out of Wake Forest. When the season started, the 22-year-old had just 12 games of experience in the Minor Leagues.

In retrospect, we can say that it was a serious error of judgment on the part of the fantasy managers. Kurtz received an invitation to Major League spring training and impressed in the Cactus League with a .973 OPS and a pair of home runs. He was optioned to Triple-A in late spring, but stayed there for just over three weeks, earning a promotion to the major leagues after conquering pitching in the Pacific Coast League.

Kurtz didn’t get off to a spectacular start with the A’s. He posted a .208/.259/.299 batting average with one homer and a 36.5% strikeout rate in his first 23 Major League games. However, after that brief adjustment period, Kurtz exploded, hitting .309/.409/.691 with 35 home runs and 80 RBIs in his final 94 games. Below we show Kurtz’s classification in different statistical categories.

It’s true that May 20 is an arbitrary starting point, but we’re talking about a nearly four-month period when Kurtz was the best hitter in baseball. Aaron Judge he was the only player to come close to Kurtz in terms of OPS (1.098), wOBA (.442) and wRC+ (190) during that period. Kurtz also had 65 fewer plate appearances than any of the five players ahead of him in the home run category (the right had the second fewest at 469).

The quality of contact with Kurtz during his rookie season was also phenomenal.

Kurtz needs to improve on some things. The most important thing is his problem with the fans. The 22-year-old has struck out 30.9% of the time this season, which ranks in the fourth percentile. In the period mentioned, from May 20, it was slightly better at 29.7%, but that percentage is also among the worst in the league.

Kurtz also had a strikeout rate of 35.5%, seventh worst in baseball among hitters with at least 250 plate appearances. The six players with a higher strikeout percentage than Kurtz were Gabriel Arias, Christopher Morel, Michael Taylor, Giancarlo Stanton, Michael Toglia j Jordan Walker. It’s a list you’d rather not be on.

Stanton, at 158, was the only one of those six with a wRC+ above 90. The average of the other five was only 71.4. Meanwhile, Kurtz’s wRC+ was 170. If you look four spots below Kurtz on the strikeout list, you’ll find Aaron Judge and his wRC+ of 204 (best in the league). In short, to not be a bad hitter with that number of strikeouts, you need to have exceptional contact quality. While Kurtz isn’t on the level of Judge or Stanton in that regard, he’s not far off.

Kurtz, unlike most of the players on the strikeout percentage list, is a disciplined hitter. He chased out of the zone just 22.2% of the time, which ranked in the 86th percentile. His 12.9% walk rate was in the 90th percentile. Kurtz’s problem was a zone contact rate of just 72.5%, third worst in baseball among players with at least 400 plate appearances. It would obviously be preferable if those numbers improved, and it’s too early to see Kurtz as someone who will always struggle in that regard. That said, I should also mention that other players in the top 10 with the worst zone contact rates are Rafael DeversRonald Acuna Jr., Jazz Chisholm Jr., Shohei Ohtani and judge. If getting out of your ‘A’ swing and doing damage means hitting more balls in the zone, that may be a sacrifice worth making.

Finally, we have to talk about the advantage Kurtz and the rest of the track and field hitters have by playing their home games at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. According to the stage index of Baseball savant A’s temporary home was the second most hitter-friendly park in 2025, behind only Coors Field. He ranked sixth in home runs. Kurtz was an MVP-worthy road hitter last season, hitting .291/.385/.582 and 14 home runs in 58 games. However, he shined at home with an offensive line of .290/.382/.657 and 22 full return hits in 59 games. Kurtz will once again make his home at Sutter Health Park in 2026 (and 2027).

Since he hits left-handed, his strikeout rate, as well as his production, could be better against lefties (.197/.261/.423). That said, given the sublime quality of contact and the convenient location of the home ballpark, it’s hard to imagine him not being an elite hitter in 2026 and beyond (as long as he stays healthy). One could argue that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should be ahead of him among fantasy first point guards, but in my opinion Kurtz is the best.