It’s been a tough week for Keir Starmer. And it’s only Wednesday.
At one point on Monday, the British prime minister’s survival was a matter of hour to hour. Rumors spread through Westminster. Would anyone challenge him?
For those not following closely, Starmer’s leadership is under pressure over his decision to hire Peter Mandelson as his ambassador to the United States, for which he has already apologized.
Mandelson was a good friend of Jeffrey Epstein – that has been publicly known for years. But the extent of that friendship only became clear with the publication of the latest batch of Epstein files.
Police are now investigating whether Mandelson, formerly Britain’s business secretary, disclosed market-sensitive information to the American sex trafficker.
Mandelson was fired from his Washington post months ago and has said he “regrets” his association with Epstein but denies any criminal wrongdoing.
The decision to appoint Mandelson has led many inside and outside the British Labor Party to wonder what it says about Starmer’s judgement.
‘A huge distraction’
Scottish Labor leader Anas Sarwar was the first major party name to call for Starmer to resign, declaring that “the leadership in Downing Street has become a huge distraction”.
There’s a subtext to it. His party is expected to do poorly in the upcoming Scottish parliamentary elections, largely due to dissatisfaction with the government in Westminster. This was his attempt to distinguish Scottish Labor from its southern friends.
Had Sarwar’s call been followed by similar demands from the Welsh Labor leader, along with ministers and influential MPs, Starmer might have been forced to resign.
But in the minutes following the hastily arranged press conference in Glasgow, Starmer’s entire cabinet posted statements in support of the Prime Minister.
Even his critics and rivals – including former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, the head of the government – said now is not the time to change leaders.
The mess made Sarwar look disloyal and the party broke up. If you stick your head above the ground in politics, it is wise to ensure that others will follow.
The pressure is not completely gone yet
Although Starmer sounded confident at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday and thanked colleagues for their support, he is not yet safe.
By-elections will be held in the suburbs of Manchester later this month. It is a seat that Labor should retain, with a majority of 13,000 votes. But Nigel Farage’s populist, right-wing Reform UK is polling well, and a resurgent Green Party could divide the left vote.
There will be elections in May for the devolved parliaments in Scotland and Wales, as well as for many English councils.
Should Labor lose control of the Welsh Senedd it would be a disaster for the party and make it very difficult for Starmer to stay in power.
“You’re joking, and not another one!”
One of the great slogans in British politics was coined by Brenda from Bristol. It was her irritated response to a BBC reporter when asked about the prospect of another general election in 2017.
Many Britons today would feel the same way about a new Prime Minister. If Starmer were to leave, Britain would have had five leaders in four years.
Labor was elected in a landslide in 2024, promising to ‘stop the chaos’ after fourteen years of Conservative rule, including Brexit, Boris Johnson, COVID-19 and the seven-week circus of Liz Truss’s government.
The advantage Starmer has over both Johnson and Truss is that there is no credible alternative candidate to challenge him.
Rayner is still dealing with a tax issue, highly regarded Health Minister Wes Streeting is defending his own friendship with Mandelson, and other options being discussed internally have almost no name recognition among the general public.
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