Concerns if Blue Jays hold out on offseason lineup upgrades

Knowing what we’re doing with general manager Ross Atkins and this front office, chances are they remain open to further improving this roster, especially the group of position players, with three weeks before pitchers and catchers report to Dunedin, Florida, for spring training. But they won’t be looking for a desperate pivot. If they add anything, it will be on their own terms.

That means it’s unlikely the Blue Jays will engage in a bidding war for the best remaining free-agent hitter available: outfielder Cody Bellinger, who seems destined to return to New York anyway, whether that’s with the Yankees or he heads to the Mets.

Even without another meaningful addition, the Blue Jays remain in a strong position with their roster heading into next season, having significantly upgraded the starting rotation with Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, lengthened the bullpen with Tyler Rogers and ensured they would land an impact bat by signing Kazuma Okamoto. Regardless of their other failures, this has already been an A+ offseason for the organization.

Granted, adding Tucker or Bichette to the mix would have added another plus on top of that figure, making for a unique winter of free agents. Sometimes things don’t go your way in free agency. That’s part of what makes it so unpredictable. Ultimately, though, there’s a strong argument that the Blue Jays remain the class of the American League.

Besides Toronto, the only AL teams to sign at least $20 million in contracts this winter (excluding players who accepted their qualifying offers) are the Baltimore Orioles (two), Boston Red Sox, Chicago White Sox, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners – all with one. And you could argue that none of them have moved the needle far enough to surpass the reigning AL champions.

While this selection, at least on papershould provide the organization with an excellent opportunity to turn that aspiration into reality in just over eight months, with keeping the offense status quo specifically meaning betting on several “What Ifs” that will fall in their favor.

As much potential as Toronto’s lineup possesses, there isn’t much guaranteed certainty in terms of production outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who faces enormous expectations coming out of the gate after one of the most memorable postseason performances in franchise history. But what happens when his power stroke slows again, as it has in each of the past two seasons?

Or what if Anthony Santander doesn’t bounce back like everyone hopes? The team is also counting on Okamoto and Addison Barger to be key contributors, but what if both get off to slow starts early and struggle to meet expectations?

There’s also a strong possibility that a healthy dose of regression could hit these Blue Jays’ offense in ’26. No one should expect George Springer to finish as a top-three hitter in the sport again. But how far will he fall? Top 15? Top20? And what about Alejandro Kirk (.276 AVG in two-strike counts, fourth-highest in the majors) and Ernie Clement (career-high 146 wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching), considering they both just enjoyed the best offensive performances (regular season + postseason) of their careers.

How many players from that group, which Bichette is no longer a part of, can this club safely assume will meet or finish above that threshold next season? One for sure, maybe two or three. Okamoto posted a 140 wRC+ or better in five of eight seasons with the Yomiuri Giants of NPB from 2018 to 2025.

Without another meaningful offensive addition, this lineup will have less margin for error as the post-Bichette era begins. And if things don’t go their way, the responsibility will suddenly shift to the newly upgraded pitching staff to stay afloat.

As such, you can see why it’s at least worth considering further additions from this point. Yet it’s also worth remembering that every additional dollar spent will be taxed at 90 percent, with the franchise currently above the fourth luxury tax threshold of $304 million. So they cannot afford to spend money carelessly.

Which hitters should the Jays target?

Whoever takes over the front office, if this team isn’t done adding to the roster this winter, should be a substantial upgrade over Nathan Lukes – who would certainly lose his roster spot in any scenario, especially in favor of another lefty hitter.

Barring an unexpected signing of Bellinger or, to a lesser extent, an extravagant addition like Austin Hays or Miguel Andujar (both quality platoon options in right-versus-left matchups), Atkins should likely tap the trade market amid the severely diminished free-agent crop.

As for teams with pieces that fit Toronto’s needs and could be interested in selling, the St. Louis Cardinals stand out as an ideal trade partner with intriguing targets like Brendan Donovan and Lars Nootbaar (both free agents after 2027), or Alec Burleson (who has an extra year of club control than the first two).

Alternatively, the Minnesota Twins could again serve as a valuable trade partner if they are willing to move Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner. However, there would undoubtedly be a significant gap in acquisition costs between that pair of left-handed outfielders, with the latter having four seasons of control versus the former two.

Or perhaps Toronto’s buyer will opt for a more big game hunting approach. With a decent mix of near-MLB-ready prospects and pieces with a high ceiling but still several seasons away, perhaps they can revisit the Steven Kwan conversation that emerged around last season’s trade deadline.

The Guardians are not in a position to aggressively sell Kwan — not yet, at least — as the 28-year-old outfielder has two more seasons of club control before hitting free agency. And they’ll need his services to compete in the wide-open AL Central in ’26. But if the Blue Jays go all-in on this front, meaning every prospect not named Trey Yesavage is available, the makings of a trade might materialize.

It’s also possible that none of these hitters are traded before Opening Day arrives. Acquiring a player listed here could be too lucrative for management, prompting them to continue to wait patiently to see what they have before considering offensive additions around next season’s trade deadline.