Commodity Radar: Seen in October, oil seen weak. Anand Rathi expert recommends selling in the midst of double problems

Oil prices fell on Wednesday for the third day in a row when the production walk by Oliekartel OPEC+ weighed. Following prices in global raw material markets, the futures of crude oil decreased by 1.6% to reach the lowest point of the day of RS 5.481 per BBL.

Around 5:15 pm Today, the Ruwe Oil Contracts of October on RS 5,523 on the MCX, a decrease with RS 46 or 0.83%.

The American WTI raw oil prices on the Comex float nearly $ 62.13 per BBL, fell by $ 0.24 or 0.38%, while Brent was $ 0.24 or 0.36% lower around this time and traded at $ 65.79.

With reference to sources, Reuters reported that OPEC+ could agree to increase oil production by a maximum of 500,000 barrels per day (BPD) in November, triple the increase made for October, because Saudi Arabia wants to win back a market share.

In commentary on current trends, NAVEEN Mathur, director of raw materials and currencies at Anand Rathi shares and stock brokers said that the situation of the oil is neither there, because it swings sharply between tight-term and growing long-lasting worries.

Last week, WTI jumped with 5.3% to $ 65.72, taking his best performance since June, helped by the Russian export ban of the diesel, the disruptions of the refineries and OPEC+ that did not meet the promises of exports. But on Monday, the steepest decrease in the oil saw in three months by more than 4% after conversations about OPEC+ probable production hogging announcement during the upcoming meeting of 5 October. “The group has already planned an increase of 1.37,000 BPD for October and could add the same for November to regain market share,” Mathur inquired.

The case is exacerbated by non-OPEC producers, especially the US, who pump more oil. The IEA sees a surplus of almost 2 million BPD in 2025 and more than 3 million BPD in 2026.

“These prospects keep oil in a downward trend, where rallies are sold quickly. Anyway, a strong demand, Chinese stock and geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East help prevent a greater fall,” said Mathur.

While the current disruptions of the offer yield a temporary peak in the prices, the risk of surplus denting prices show outlook.

WTI could further fall if OPEC+ confirms the rise of November, unless the question improves or suddenly becomes tighter, Mathur warns, in the expectation that black gold will remain under pressure until October.

Also read: Commodity Radar: Is Gold’s RSI of 75 spelling problems and do you now have to buy or sell yellow metal?

Technical display

Mathur decoded the graphs and said that the futures of MCX Ruwe Oil of October of the 50-day SMA continue to act on the weekly period, which underlines the prevailing negative sentiment.

After having reached a high of RS 6.585, futures of crude oil were not sustained on these levels and then witnessed correction.

Moreover, the RSI remains under 50 Mark, which contributes to the Bearish Momentum and re -confirmation of the conviction in the current Downtrend.

He places important support levels at RS 5,420 – RS 5,100, while resistance to RS 6,030 – RS 6.190.

MCX crude oil weekly graph

Trade strategy

In the light of this technical arrangement, it is advisable to sell MCX crude oil on rise around RS 5,800 – RS 5,820, with a strictly stop loss above 6190 and Doel 5210.

(Disclaimer: recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions of the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of economic times)