Commenting on current trends, Jateen Trivedi, vice president and research analyst at LKP Securities, said gold is being affected by two key global triggers this week: US-China rate developments, which he said provide positive short-term signals, and the FOMC interest rate decision.“Markets are largely pricing in a 0.25% rate cut, which remains supportive for bullion,” he added.
The rupee remains at record low levels, which continues to provide a structural premium for MCX gold. Even if international prices cool down in the short term, rupee weakness is likely to ease downward pressure on the domestic market.
1) Major support and resistance
Gold continues to trade in a higher high and higher low structure and is consolidating near the upper zone of its recent rally. After finding a strong base near Rs 1,28,000, the price has gradually moved back above Rs 1,30,000, indicating continued accumulation rather than distribution.
The immediate support zone is at Rs 1,30,000 – Rs 1,30,400 while a major support zone is at Rs 1,28,700. The immediate resistance is at Rs 1,31,500 while the major resistance is in the zone of Rs 1,32,000 – Rs 1,32,400. As long as the price remains above Rs 1,28,700 on a closing basis, the broader trend remains bullish with upside potential towards Rs 1,31,500 – Rs 1,32,000.
2) Momentum indicator
The RSI is hovering near the 65 region, indicating strong bullish momentum without entering extreme overbought territory. The oscillator has consistently remained above the 55-58 zone, confirming the underlying purchasing power with every small dip.
3) Price is trade
Near the upper Bollinger band, which reflects steady upward pressure. The bands remain moderately extended, indicating continuation of the trend rather than exhaustion. A short medium return to the midband could act as a healthy pullback before the next higher leg.
4) moving averages
EMA 8: almost Rs 1,30,100
EMA 21: Nearly Rs 1,29,000
Both short-term averages are rising, and the price remains above them. This confirms that buy-on dips will remain the dominant strategy as long as the price remains above the support zone of Rs 1,29,000 – Rs 1,28,700.
5) MACD
MACD remains in positive territory, with the signal line remaining above the zero line. Momentum has cooled slightly, but no bearish crossover is visible yet, indicating that the prevailing trend is still in favor of the bulls.
Gold is being influenced by two key global factors this week: US-China tariff developments provide positive short-term signals, but uncertainty remains.
The FOMC’s interest rate decision and policy statement are the biggest events of the week, with markets largely pricing in a 0.25% rate cut, which remains supportive for precious metals.
Despite the sometimes mild weakness in Comex gold, domestic prices remain firm due to the currency impact.
6) Rupee impact
The rupee remains at record low levels, which continues to provide a structural premium for MCX gold. Even if international prices cool down in the short term, rupee weakness is likely to ease downward pressure on the domestic market.
Gold trading strategy
Trivedi recommends buying on dips in the Rs 1,30,000 – Rs 1,30,400 zone. Place the stop loss below Rs 1,28,700 on the closing basis. The target price is Rs 1,31,500 – Rs 1,32,000.
Gold remains in a strong structure technically, with policy event-driven volatility likely to emerge this week, Trivedi said. He added that as long as the Rs 1,28,700 level holds, dips are expected to attract fresh buying interest.
(Disclaimer: The recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
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