- Indiana is going for his first national championship: The top-ranked Hoosiers are trying to win their first national title in program history.
- Miami tries to win his first title in more than twenty years: The Hurricanes last won the national championship in 2001.
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Estimated reading time: 8 minutes
We’ve finally made it to the National Championship Game in college football, as the Indiana Hoosiers And Miami (FL) Hurricanes will compete for the title. Both programs had vastly different paths to get to the title game.
Indiana has been the best team in college football all year and is still undefeated with a perfect 15-0 record. The Hoosiers will play in the National Championship game for the first time and will try to win the national title for the first time in program history. Head coach Curt Cignetti has led this miraculous turnaround for a program that still has the second-worst winning percentage of all Power Four programs (42.4%).
Miami has a much richer history, with a total of five national championships to its name. However, the Hurricanes had a much more difficult road to this year’s title game. They lost twice in the regular season Louisville And SMUand they were the last team selected for an at-large berth in the playoffs. Miami has the advantage of playing in its home stadium for the national championship and is playing in the title game for the first time in 23 years.
In this preview, we’ll discuss the matchups to watch in both the run and pass games for each offense and defense. And of course we predict who will ultimately win the national championship.
No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers vs. #10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (Miami, Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN)
Indiana‘s passing game against Miami’s pass defense (Max): Can the nation’s best pass rush confuse the Heisman Trophy winner?
Miami has been the best team in the country this season when it comes to chasing down opposing quarterbacks. The Hurricanes lead the FBS with a team pass-rushing grade of 92.5, while their 54 sacks are the most in the country. Edge Defenders Rueben Bain Jr. (80) and Akheem Mesidor (63) rank second and fifth respectively in pressure this year. Miami had a pressure rate of at least 40% in the last two playoff wins Ole ma’am And State of Ohioa key reason why the Hurricanes emerged victorious in both matches.
Indiana’s pass protection was strong this year, ranking 16th in team pass blocking grade (78.2). One of the players tasked with blocking Bain and Mesidor, left tackle Carter Smith, is second among all offensive linemen in the country with a pass-blocking grade of 93.7. However, the Hoosiers have had some issues against some of the better teams they have played and are only 73rd in the country with a 12.4% knockdown percentage allowed. This year’s Heisman Trophy winner, quarterback Fernando Mendoza, has mitigated that, as his 71.7 PFF under pressure leads all Power Four signal callers. Mendoza will have to be as efficient in this match against Miami’s elite pass rush.
Indiana‘s run game against Miami’s run defense (Dalton): Indiana’s offensive line vs. Miami’s defensive line
IndianaThe player’s rushing attack is both incredibly simple and immensely efficient. More than 60% of the Hoosiers’ designed rushes utilize man or inside zone concepts. When deploying these concepts, they are averaging 5.8 yards per carry, the 17th best mark in the country. The onus falls on the Hoosiers’ offensive line, which ranks 10th in the nation as a unit in run-blocking grade, to be the most physically dominant trench unit in this game.
However, Indiana’s offensive line may be its biggest challenge of the season Miami’s line of defense. The Hurricanes’ defensive line, led by future first-round pick Rueben Bain Jr., ranks third in the nation in run defense. When it comes to man or inside zone concepts specifically, Miami has allowed just 4.1 yards per carry this season. This game promises to be a physical battle, especially when Indiana tries to run the ball downhill.
Miami’s passing game against Indiana‘s pass defense (Dalton): Will Miami be able to ramp up production after the catch?
Led by superstar true freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney, Miami has been able to consistently produce yards after the catch all season. Only two teams have accumulated more yards after the catch this season than Miami. The Hurricanes’ pass catchers are also among the top five units in missed tackles forced after the catch. That production has been the biggest reason Carson Beck has recorded a minuscule average depth of 25 feet, a career low of 25 in the nation.
Indiana has done a great job of preventing post-catch production all season long. The Hoosiers have allowed just 4.8 yards after the catch per completion this season, the 14th lowest mark in the country. The Hoosiers have also missed just 42 tackles, less than three per game, all season. If Indiana can slow down Malachi Toney and Keelan Marion, especially after the catch, the Hoosiers will likely create big advantages in coverage by forcing Carson Beck to throw the football downfield more often than he would like.
Miami’s game against Indiana‘s run defense (Max): Miami’s downhill run scheme against one of the most fundamentally sound run defenses in college football
Miami’s run game is based on moving people with its dominant offensive line and running the defense downhill. The Hurricanes rank 12th in run-blocking grade while using the man (duo) concept 28% of the time, the fourth-highest rate in the Power Four.
It’s a concept based on double teams on the inside to create vertical movement while the running back (Mark Fletcher Jr.) reads the middle linebacker. If the linebacker gets sucked in, Fletcher can make a cut to the outside. If the linebacker stays outside, Fletcher can block the ball in the middle behind his double-team blocks. His rushing grade of 92.0 this year is sixth among all backs in America, while his 426 rushing yards on duo lead all Power Four running backs.
Indiana was outstanding with his run fits on defense this year, ranking third in the nation in both team run-defense grade (94.4) and team tackle grade (90.9). The Hoosiers were also excellent at defending the duo concept, ranking seventh in yards per attempt allowed (2.6) and fourth in explosive run rate allowed (1.7%). The spotlights will be on Indiana’s linebackers in Rolijah Hardy, Isaiah Jones and Aiden Fisher. Hardy in particular ranks fourth among all linebackers in the country with a run-defense grade of 91.2.
Predictions
Maximum: Indiana 31, Miami 20
Although the Hurricanes have home field advantage and are the most dominant team in the country in the trenches, the Hoosiers are still the most complete and best-coached team in college football. Indiana captures the first national championship in program history, and head coach Curt Cignetti completes the largest program turnaround in college football history.
Dalton: Indiana 27, Miami 17
MiamiThe Hurricanes defense gives the Hurricanes the better chance, but Indiana is the best team in the country. Fernando Mendoza works around MiamiThe elite of the elite pass and make enough big throws to pull away, while the Hurricanes struggle to find explosive play against the only defense that can match their own.
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