College basketball thoughts: Is Nebraska destined to be the next incredible turnaround?

Welcome, football fans who are finally heading to college hoops. Come in. The water is fine.

To put you at ease, this week’s 12 thoughts start in a familiar place:

Is there a college basketball equivalent of Indiana Football?

1. You’ve almost certainly heard it by now, but when Curt Cignetti arrived in Bloomington in November 2023, he inherited the losingest major program in college football history. Prior to his arrival – and this season’s stunning run to the league title – IU had won three postseason games, ever. That sordid history makes Indiana football one of the best stories in American sports history.

So, who’s the hoop equivalent? And is it realistic for any basketball program to dream of a Cignetti-like moonshot? Tell me, after a scan of the 10 most losing high-major hoops programs:

2. That only two high-major programs are still historically below .500 was surprising, but the list consists of many schools you would expect. Chris Collins made history in 2017 by leading the Wildcats to their first-ever NCAA Tournament berth and win, but now Northwestern is back in the Big Ten cellar. Rutgers is known more for bombing two top-five NBA Draft picks (Dylan Harper Jr. and Ace Bailey) than anything it has accomplished in recent history. And Georgia and TCU haven’t won conference titles since this author was born.

Baylor is the outlier of all outliers. Scott Drew won it all with transfers before it was cool, with multiple members of his 2021 bubble Championship team sitting out a year before leading the Bears to the promised land. But even Baylor’s success hasn’t protected the program from derailments; BU hasn’t advanced beyond the round of 32 since the nets were cut down and sits on the NCAA Tournament bubble at 11-7 and 1-5 in the Big 12.

But the most interesting part of that list?

3. Half of schools have gone as far as they have ever gone in the NCAA Tournament since the arrival of the transfer portal and NIL in the summer of 2021.

That, like IU’s rise in football, shows how different the playing field is. Hire the right coach, add the necessary resources to be competitive – and with one strong transfer portal class, voila. You too can build a contender overnight (or at least a team that is far better than the program’s historic status).

4. So on that list, which school is most likely the college hoops version of Indiana? Baylor and Iowa State – because of two Sweet 16s in three seasons and this year’s 17-2 start – are disqualified. There is one overwhelming choice: the only major program that has it never won an NCAA tournament game.

Hello, Nebraska.

The No. 7 Cornhuskers are 19-0 after Wednesday night’s win over Washington – the best start in program history – and are one of three undefeated teams remaining in Division I, joining No. 1 Arizona and No. 25 Miami of Ohio. And while Fred Hoiberg’s team hasn’t exactly played the most challenging schedule, Nebrasketball has picked up two ranking victories (over No. 10 Michigan State and No. 11 Illinois) on its way to first place in the Big Ten.

5. Hoiberg didn’t bring any players from the Chicago Bulls with him when he took over as head coach in 2020 – although maybe he should have tried! But instead, he wisely mined the transfer portal.

Four of the Huskers’ six top scorers are transfers: Pryce Sandfort (Iowa), Rienk Mast (Bradley), Berke Buyuktuncel (UCLA) and Jamarques Lawrence (Rhode Island). Lawrence returned to Lincoln after starting his career at Nebraska. Then you have a key freshman, sixth man Braden Frager, and the coach’s son, Sam, who does a little bit of everything.

Sandfort was a top-100, four-star recruit out of high school, and Buyuktuncel was a highly sought-after international player. But like Cignetti’s Indiana, this isn’t a roster full of five-star talent. It is one that plays together, as Hoiberg wants, and finds ways to win no matter who it is against.

I won’t go so far as to predict that Nebraska will win the national title this season — especially in a single-elimination tournament where the best team doesn’t always win — but I do believe the Huskers can win games. pluralfor the first time in the Great Dance.

6. You know who else is capable of that? The defending national champions.

Don’t look now, but since Christmas, Florida has the fourth-best net rating in the sport, fueled by the nation’s No. 1 offense during that stretch, according to Bart Torvik. (The three teams ahead of UF: Houston, Texas Tech and Virginia.)

Since a stunning loss at Missouri right after the new year, Todd Golden’s Gators have won five straight, beating three ranked foes in the process: Georgia, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Including Tuesday’s 79-61 win over LSU, Florida is averaging 91.2 points per game over its past five contests.

So what has changed? The Florida shootings were slightly better, but not by much; the Gators are still making just 29.5 percent of their 3s since Christmas. Golden has mitigated UF’s shooting woes by balancing the numbers elsewhere. On the offending glass namely.

Since Christmas, Florida has been sipping one absurd 44.4 percent of available offensive rebounds, best in the country. It’s no surprise that UF leads the nation in second-chance points with 17.5 per game, according to CBB Analytics. And there’s one man in particular leading the Gators’ rebounding. (Pun intended.)

7. Rueben Chinyelu was a starter in every game for Florida’s title team, but primarily served as a rebounder and screener for the Gators’ dominant guards. He averaged 5.3 points and seven rebounds per game during last year’s NCAA Tournament.

But during UF’s current winning streak, Chinyelu has been playing like a man possessed. He is averaging 16.2 points and 12.6 rebounds per game over that stretch. double his season averages last year – while making two-thirds of his shots. That includes his first career 20-point game, against Vanderbilt, and his second 20-rebound game this season, against LSU.

At 6-foot-4 and 265 pounds, Chinyelu can score on dump-offs at the rim, putback tips, alley-oops and via his rapidly improving drop step. But there is no deadlier shot in Chinyelu’s bag than his hook over his left shoulder. Thirteen of Chinyelu’s 32 shots made in the past five games (40.6 percent) have been big hits, according to Synergy, not to mention the several bad decisions made as a result.

And Chinyelu is becoming more and more comfortable taking photos on the go. (Familiar distance, eh?)

That’s a scary proposition for the rest of the SEC and the nation. KenPom now projects Florida to win the SEC by multiple games.

8. The Athletics‘s midseason All-America team dropped this week, which means it’s also #SnubSZN. I was surprised that Houston’s Kingston Flemings, who I voted for, wasn’t on either team, but I was more shocked when a few players didn’t earn votes:

• Darius Acuff Jr., freshman guard, Arkansas: John Calipari’s newest freshman sensation is averaging 19.6 points, 6.2 assists and 2.9 rebounds per game while shooting 41 percent from 3 and 80.5 percent from the free throw line.

• Christian Anderson, sophomore guard, Texas Tech: The only player in the country to average at least 20 points and seven assists per game, he was at his best in the Red Raiders’ biggest games, against Duke and BYU. He is also one of only eight bigs to shoot above 45 percent from 3 on at least five attempts per game.

• Thomas Haugh, junior forward, Florida: He is one of only fourteen major players to average at least sixteen points, five rebounds and one steal per game. Plus, he was the key to the Gators’ massive lineups.

• Graham Ike, graduate forward, Gonzaga: With 18.1 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, he is statistically one of the most dominant bigs in the country. And with fellow forward Braden Huff out for the foreseeable future, Ike’s numbers could rise even further.

I’m sure I’m forgetting a few that our loyal commentators will soon remind me of.

9. Could Kansas freshman Darryn Peterson also make that list at the end of the season? Absolutely – if he can ever finish a game. But while Peterson’s status was the story of KU’s first half of the season, there are bigger concerns for Lawrence.

On Monday, Kansas coach Bill Self was hospitalized “out of an abundance of caution,” the university said, while receiving IV fluids at Lawrence Memorial Hospital. That’s after the 63-year-old had two stents inserted last July when he “felt unwell and was experiencing some concerning symptoms,” and after previously missing the 2023 Big 12 and NCAA Tournament due to a heart condition.

10. Only the two-time national title winner knows how long he wants to continue coaching through these setbacks. The feeling across the industry is that now that KU has recruited Tyran Stokes — the No. 1 prospect in the class of 2026 — as hard as it is, Self wants at least one more go-around. At least, being the key phrase.

11. It goes without saying that when Self retires, it will be the kind of seismic decision that will reshape the landscape of college basketball. Kansas is, at worst, a top-five course in the sport. One of the Cadillacs of college hoops, rich in history, resources and brand name recognition. Any coach outside of Dan Hurley, Jon Scheyer, Hubert Davis and Mark Pope would jump at the idea of ​​even being considered to replace Self.

Assistant Jacques Vaughn – one of the best players in KU history – served as acting head coach for the Jayhawks’ 75-69 victory in Colorado on Tuesday. (Self has not traveled, but thankfully said in a statement that he is “feeling much better.”) Self-told before The Athletics that he is “not interested in thinking or talking about a succession plan.” But as a two-time NBA head coach, not to mention Jayhawks legend, Vaughn should be in the mix.

12. As for external candidates, take your pick. Industry rumors indicate that Florida’s Todd Golden or Alabama’s Nate Oats would top KU’s list (although Kansas could have competition for Oats if the North Carolina job surprisingly opens up).

Just as John Calipari left Kentucky for Arkansas in the spring of 2024, the Kansas vacancy is the kind of vacancy that puts the coaching carousel into overdrive.

But as college basketball fans, let’s hope that Self’s health allows him to end his career on his own terms.