Coinbase Analysis: Bitcoin could slide to this key level before it bounces

The exchange’s institutional desk highlights negative gamma exposure between $60,000 and $70,000, a setup that could amplify volatility.

Bitcoin’s brief recovery above $66,000 following US President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address has done little to change the underlying market structure, with new analysis from Coinbase Institutional pointing to a critical support zone near $60,000 that, if broken, could lead to accelerated selling.

The combination of options market dynamics and on-chain data suggests that the path of least resistance remains lower, with any sustained recovery likely requiring a clawback of $82,000, a level that currently represents the first major hurdle to renewed upside momentum.

Options market points to accelerated downside risk

The latest Bitcoin playbook from Coinbase Institutional introduced gamma exposure (GEX) as a lens to understand how options traders influence price action. According to the company, when dealers maintain a positive range, their hedging tends to stabilize prices, selling when strong and buying when weak. Negative gamma has the opposite effect: dealers are forced to buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall, reinforcing trends.

The current configuration shows a pronounced negative gamma band concentrated in the $60,000 to $70,000 region, with positive gamma pockets forming higher near $85,000 and $90,000. According to Coinbase, this structure has a specific implication: downside momentum in the $60,000 area could quickly accelerate, while any progress towards $90,000 would likely grind and consolidate rather than break out cleanly.

Close support is around $60,000 based on historical market structure and volume profiles, while $82,000 represents the first significant resistance band. According to Coinbase market watchers, the lack of stabilizing gamma in that region suggests resistance could persist if Bitcoin fails to hold above $82,000. In contrast, a break below $60,000 would occur in a negative gamma environment, meaning the selling could feed itself if dealers hedged in the direction of the move.

Data on the chain confirms defensive regime

Coinbase’s options-derived outlook is consistent with the chain’s deteriorating fundamentals. Yesterday, analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that the Realized Cap fell for the second month in a row, falling by about $33 billion from the peak of $1.127 trillion in November 2025 to about $1.094 trillion. Moreover, the 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change is still negative, indicating continued capital outflows.

Separate data from Glassnode showed that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio fell below 1, meaning more BTC is being sold at a loss than at a profit. According to the analytics platform, such regimes have historically lasted for months before liquidity conditions improved.

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Meanwhile, sentiment tracker Santiment said On Wednesday, that bullish commentary on X, Reddit and Telegram hit a four-week high after Trump’s State of the Union address. However, the company warned that heightened retail optimism and talk of the end of a “bear cycle” have coincided with stalled rallies in the past.