BULAWAYO, Zimbabwe, Feb 27 (IPS) – Your morning cup of coffee could soon become more expensive, thanks to climate change, putting pressure on production of the world’s most loved drink.
Increasing periods of high heat in the world’s major coffee-producing regions are affecting coffee production, leading to low harvests and high prices for consumers. This is the discovery of a new one study Through Climate Central, This underlines the urgency for coffee farmers to adapt to adverse weather conditions. Coffee plants are very sensitive to weather changes.
Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia – the five largest coffee-producing countries – have each experienced an average of 57 additional days of damaging heat per year due to climate change, according to the report. Climate Centrala non-profit organization of independent scientists and communicators researching climate change. The five countries together supply 75 percent of the world’s coffee.
High heat, low coffee
An analysis of Climate Central compared observed temperatures from 2021 to 2025 to a hypothetical world without carbon pollution using the Climate Shift Index. The analysis calculated the additional number of days per year that climate change pushed temperatures in major coffee-producing countries above the coffee-damaging threshold of 30°C (86°F).
“When temperatures rise above this threshold, coffee plants experience heat stress that can reduce yield, affect bean quality and increase plant vulnerability to disease,” the study said, noting that climate change threatens reduced supply and quality of coffee, not to mention higher prices for most. favorite drink.
The world drinks an estimated 2.2 billion cups of coffee every day. The United States is the largest consumer of coffee in the world by volume. Finland is the largest consumer of coffee per person, with four cups per day per person Statesman.
Smaller harvests and higher prices hit small farmers the hardest. Smallholder farmers account for about 80% of global producers and about 60 percent of global supply, but receive only 0.36 percent of the financing needed to adapt to the impacts of climate change in 2021. The average adaptation cost for a 1-hectare farm is $2.19 per day – less than the price of a cup of coffee in many countries.
“The world’s coffee supply is increasingly under pressure and climate change plays an important role,” the study said.
All 25 coffee countries surveyed – representing 97% of global production – experienced more coffee-damaging heat due to climate change. On average, each country experienced 47 additional days per year with temperatures damaging coffee plants, which would not have happened without fossil fuel pollution.
Shel Winkley, a meteorologist at Climate CentralAccording to the report, global coffee prices have reached record highs over the past five years and climate change has added more ‘coffee-damaging’ heat above 30°C to the global bean belt.
“Heat stress can reduce both the quality and quantity of the crop, which means less coffee, higher prices and a more expensive morning routine and afternoon pick-me-up,” Winkley said in a statement. “Farmers are doing their best to adapt, such as planting shade trees that naturally cool coffee plants, and trying to protect future crops in our warming world.”
Cool coffee, protect harvests
In Ethiopia, one of the largest coffee producers in the world, farmers are feeling the heat.
Dejene Dadi, Managing Director of Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union (OCFCU), a small farmer cooperative that is one of the largest coffee producers and exporters in Ethiopia, emphasized that Ethiopian Arabica is sensitive to direct sunlight and needs sufficient shade to produce more beans.
“To secure coffee supplies, governments must take action on climate change,” Dadi said, adding: “They [government] must also collaborate with and invest in small coffee farmers and their organizations so that we can scale up the solutions we need to adapt.”
The Oromia Coffee Farmers Cooperatives Union (OCFCU) has distributed energy-efficient cooking stoves that reduce the need for fuelwood and protect forest areas that serve as natural shelters for coffee cultivation. More than 19,000 efficient ‘Mirt’ and ‘Caltu’ stoves have been distributed to coffee farmers in Jima, Ethiopia, replacing traditional fires. According to the Union, the project has reduced 20,323 tCO₂e/year and saved half of fuel needs.
In 2025, Ethiopia exported 467,000 tons of coffee to the European Union for agriculture in 2024/2025. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), Ethiopia and Uganda account for 80 percent of total African coffee exports, mainly to the European market.
A 2022 study predicted a massive decline in suitable land for growing Arabic coffee by 2050 due to rising temperatures. The IPCC already predicts that the world is on track to exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius warming limit set in the Paris Agreement. Any further increase in temperature can lead to loss of temperature
Coffee cultivation provides income for approximately 12.5 million farming families worldwide and is one of the most traded commodities.
While in Colombia, another coffee producer in the world, farmers faced extreme heat with an average of seventy additional coffee-damaging hot days per year due to climate change.
Eugenio Cifuentes from Tuluá, Valle, Colombia, who has been growing coffee for 25 years and is co-founder of the Colombian Organic Coffee Growers Association, ACOC-Cafe Sano, said Colombian coffee farmers are struggling with heat, drought and erratic rainfall. They need training and funding to adapt to climate impacts.
“We must abandon monoculture agriculture – which relies on chemical fertilizers and pesticides to produce a single crop – in favor of practices like agroforestry that work with nature to build climate resilience,” he said.
“You can see and feel the benefits on my farm, where I planted trees to protect the coffee from the heat. In 2024 – a hot and dry year – the cooling effect of the trees helped maintain the quality and quantity of production, while neighboring monoculture farms had serious quality problems.”
India is the seventh largest coffee producer in the world and also a top exporter. The country produces arabica and robusta coffee in the shade. Arabica and Robusta coffee make up 99 percent of the coffee consumed worldwide, out of more than 120 coffee varieties grown around the world.
In India, Sohan Shetty, who manages a number of shaded, biodiverse organic coffee farms for Satyanarayana plantations in the Western Ghats, has been experiencing higher temperatures and irregular rainfall.
“We see a reduction in soil moisture even when coffee is grown in the shade,” says Shetty. “This creates stress on coffee plants, which in turn causes flowering with irregular rains. So it is very common for planters to stop harvesting because some of their plants have blossomed.
Akshay Dashrath, co-founder and grower of South India Coffee Company, produces coffee at his farm in Mooleh Manay.
Dashrath said climate change was no longer something they predicted, but something they measured daily as a result of higher temperatures and greater moisture loss than the region’s coffee depended on.
“Coffee is a crop that thrives in balance. Shade, moisture and cool recovery periods. As that balance diminishes, farms like ours and our partner farms must adapt quickly through better shade management, soil health and water resilience. What is happening at Mooleh Manay is a clear signal that climate change is already changing the way coffee is grown in Kodagu,” said Dashrath.
IPS UN office report
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