So I’m not sure if Chase Burns is a sleeper, a rookie, both or something in between that we haven’t discovered yet. Maybe we’ll find out for ourselves now. We’re a bunch of fantasy baseball Magellans. Look at me, I’m wearing a puffy hat like Magellan and I’m in a ship with a handheld telescope. “What is that, Cape Horn? Meh, who cares! I see Chase Burns off the coast of Three Rivers. What rivers are those? I don’t know, I’m not a river explorer, I’m a fantasy baseball explorer.” Around mid-November, while I was still deep in my rookie outlook series for 2026 fantasy baseball, I asked Itch if Chase Burns was a rookie to see if I should do a post about him, and Itch said, “He’s not a rookie,” and I said, “Cool,” because I didn’t feel like doing another rookie outlook post, and didn’t look much further into whether he’s technically a rookie. I think so, because of the innings, but maybe not because of the service time. It’s fair to say who cares about our purposes unless your league requires one of you to qualify as a newcomer or something. Welp, whatever, rookie or not, because guess what? He’s a sleeper too! So, what can we expect from Chase Burns for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
PSYCHE! All of my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings are on the Patreon. Don’t wait for the rankings to appear next month. Anyway II, the Chase Burns sleeper:
Going back two years, here’s Itch on Chase Burns going into this year: “Burns set a new NCAA single-season record with 191 strikeouts in 100 innings for Wake Forest. That’s the kind of math I can get behind. It looks like he’s striking out about two guys per innings, which seems like a good plan. His slider just isn’t something college hitters are used to seeing. Isn’t something every hitter is used to seeing, really. Plays like a 80 when he’s in charge, which he usually is. He’s usually in command of his 100-mph fastball, too, and while he has a little Kirby in him in that people hit his fastball more often than makes sense, he’s not doomed to that fate given his incredible athleticism and obvious growth over time, and my fist would love to slam into Gray’s head.” I’m actually scared.
Last year’s excitement didn’t dampen the enthusiasm. Ranked in the top 50 fantasy baseball prospects, Chase Burns went 66 IP in the minors with a 1.77 ERA and 12.1 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. Ridiculous isn’t just a rapper’s name, it’s also that minor league line. He was promoted and Burns then went on to have 43 1/3 IP, 13.9 K/9 (!!!), 3.3 BB/9 (not bad) and 4.57 ERA, which is tough, but with a 2.68 xFIP and a .360 BABIP and 64 LOB%, which are two absurdly unlucky numbers.
Since this is somewhere between a sleeper and a rookie post, let’s take a look at a few pitches to get the old juices flowing:
Chase Burns struck out all three Yankees he faced in his first Major League inning? pic.twitter.com/t4N4Q1DrwG
— MLB (@MLB) June 24, 2025
There are hitters who say, “Good evening, good afternoon, and good morning,” because they are so bewildered that they say things backwards. His Statcast page is just as delightful. One thing I don’t really buy into is the “this guy looks like that guy” on Statcast, because it’s usually something like: Juan Soto looks the most like Adam Frazier, or something blindingly stupid, but who am I to throw away a treat if it suits my purpose, so check this out:
Oh, he looks like Jacob deGrom and Hunter Greene? Okay, then dad listens and lets out your crazy “Similar to” thing! Burns’ slider was thrown 35% of the time and had a .203 BAA. El oh el, my acronym-loving friends. Last year he threw a pitch 35% of the time (a lot) and it had a .203 BAA. Yes, that information was given to you twice, because it’s that great. His change getting 6%? .182 BAA. His 99 MPH fastball was thrown the rest of the time? .248 BAA. So hitters can only hit his throttle at 100 MPH? Okay, good luck with that. This guy is possibly this year’s best rookie, who isn’t a rookie or rookie? Don’t know.
According to Steamer projections, Chase Burns ranks 12th in K-BB%. I’ve said this before, but here it is again: K-BB% is the most basic distillation of pitcher ranks, i.e. if you threw out your rankings on the day of your draft, and only compiled by K-BB, then you would be more or less fine. Here are the top five (starters) for K-BB% to prove my point: Skubal, Crochet, Skenes, Sale and deGrom. Steamer also hates rookies. So Chase Burns is essentially the 12th best starter for a projection system that hates rookies, which he may or may not be. Chase Burns could be drafted in the top 50 overall, and that wouldn’t be surprising. For a newcomer? Which he is not, hence: he is a sleeper! For 2026, I give Chase Burns projections of 9-5/3.49/1.18/168 in 132 IP with a chance for much more.
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