ATP tour
The ultimate undoing of Alcaraz: the Spaniard’s success on his first time
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers digs into the Spaniard’s dominance
December 22, 2025
Carlos Alcaraz has led the ATP Tour in number of first-serve return points won in three consecutive seasons.
By Andrew Eichenholz
Carlos Alcaraz possesses the ultimate nullifier in his arsenal.
The ATP Year-End No. 1, presented by PIF, is a dynamic all-round player who puts on a show with his shots. But his secret weapon is his return the first time.
According to an analysis by Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers, Alcaraz has led the Tour in number of return points won for the first time in three consecutive seasons. In 2025, the Spaniard achieved 35 percent of those points, with only Jannik Sinner (33.6%) and Francisco Cerundolo (33.4%) winning more than 33 percent.
Return points won for first service (2025)
| Player | First service return points won |
| 1) Carlos Alcaraz | 35% |
| 2) Jannik sinner | 33.6% |
| 3) Francisco Cerundolo | 33.4% |
| 4) Damir Dzumhur | 32.8% |
| 5) Daniil Medvedev | 32.7% |
The first serve is a key weapon on the ATP Tour, with many players immediately putting enemies to the back burner and earning lots of free points. Even the Spaniard wins just over one in three first-serve return points. That’s why its lead over its rivals in the category is even more important.
The 22-year-old’s 35 percent win rate on first serve in 2025 was at least 10 percent better than seven of the other nine players who finished in the Top 10 at the end of the year.
Year-end break 2025: First-serve return points won
| Player | First service return points won | Statistical rank |
| Carlos Alcaraz (No. 1) | 35% | 1 |
| Jannik sinner (no. 2) | 33.6% | 2 |
| Alex de Minaur (no. 7) | 32.2% | 7 |
| Novak Djokovic (No. 4) | 31.7% | 8 |
| Jack Draper (No. 10) | 31.2% | 9* |
| Lorenzo Musetti (No. 3) | 30.4% | 13 |
| Alexander Zverev (No. 8) | 30% | 14 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime (No. 5) | 29.2% | 19 |
| Taylor Fritz (No. 6) | 26.3% | 39 |
| Ben Shelton (No. 9) | 26.2% | 41 |
*Draper is not listed because he did not meet the minimum number of games played, but would have finished in ninth place.Alcaraz’s first-time winning percentage was 33.9 percent better than that of world No. 9 Ben Shelton (26.2%) and 33.2 percent better than that of world No. 6 Taylor Fritz (26.3%).
This wasn’t a one-year success story either. Alcaraz has dominated the category for years. Dating back to his first season on the ATP Tour in 2021, the 24-time tour-level titlist has never finished outside the top five on Tour.
No one has been close to Alcaraz in the past three years. His winning percentage of 35 percent on the first serve since 2023 is more than six percent better than that of Alex de Minaur, who ranks second on the Tour in the same period (32.9%). Daniil Medvedev (32.9%) is right behind De Minaur.
Return points won for first service (2023-2025)
| Player | First service return points won |
| 1) Carlos Alcaraz | 35% |
| 2) Alex de Minaur | 32.9% |
| 3) Daniil Medvedev | 32.9% |
| 4) Jannik sinner | 32.6% |
| 5) Francisco Cerundolo | 32.6% |
Alcaraz posted a 71-9 record in 2025 according to the Infosys ATP Win/Loss Index. But there was a trend in his losses: a below-average performance on the first serve.
The Tour leader in titles (8) and match wins (71) lost just nine times, and in seven of those defeats he won 31 percent of his first serve return points or fewer. In five of those games, he maxed out 27 percent of his return points on the first down.
The only outliers were the quarter-finals of the Australian Open against Novak Djokovic and the semi-finals of the BNP Paribas Open against Jack Draper. Alcaraz won 36 percent of the points against his opponents’ first serves in those clashes.
Overall, Alcaraz does a better job than anyone at neutralizing his opponents’ effectiveness on the first try. That was one of the reasons he managed to finish No. 1 for the second time at the end of the year and something the Spaniard will rely on in 2026 and beyond.
Return points won for first serve (career)
| Player | First service return points won |
| 1) Guillermo Coria | 36% |
| 2) Carlos Alcaraz | 34.4% |
| 3) Magnus Gustafsson | 34.2% |
| 4) Rafael Nadal | 34.2% |
| 5) Jordi Arrese | 33.9% |
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