After the Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs, some Democrats are calling for refunds to be sent to Americans, the latest hypothetical plan to redistribute tariff revenues to ordinary Americans.
The nation’s highest court ruled on Feb. 20 that Trump does not have the power to unilaterally impose the tariffs he issued under an emergency powers law, which he has used as part of his foreign policy strategy with ever-changing tariffs on targeted countries.
Democrats, including California Governor Gavin Newsom and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, have demanded refunds of at least $1,700 per household, with Pritzker sending the Trump administration an invoice for that amount per family in his state.
“Donald Trump has been illegally taxing your groceries, furniture and cars for over a year. Time for payback,” Newsom said.
Their idea follows months of speculation about Trump’s long-standing plan to send $2,000 tariff rebate checks to some Americans. The fate of that plan remains unclear.
Meanwhile, Trump has announced plans to implement tariffs using various legal mechanisms.
Rate reduction controls have long hovered under skepticism
Americans have felt the impact of tariffs, from higher costs on products they regularly buy to surprise tariff bills in the mail. The average American family paid more than $1,700 in tariff costs as of January, according to a report from Democrats on Congress’ Joint Economic Committee. The nonpartisan Tax Foundation said in a report earlier in February that the tariffs would cost each household an average of $1,000 by 2025.
When Trump first started hinting at the idea of rebate checks for Americans, it seemed like a welcome relief to some. Some said they would believe it when they saw it.
The controls never had a defined path forward, experts say. Tax analysts have said that revenue from the tariffs would not have been enough to send $2,000 to Americans, and that the details of the checks, including how and when they would be sent, are up in the air.
“It’s not clear to me that this would ever happen,” said Steven Durlauf, an economist and director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy.
Trump first suggested that tariff revenue could be used to send checks to Americans in 2025. Since then, the amount of the proposed checks and their timeline have varied. In a Jan. 7 interview with the New York Times, Trump seemed to forget that he had pledged them all, then said the checks could be for $2,000 and sent to “moderate” income Americans by the end of 2026.
But the audits related to fare revenue would likely never happen, Durlauf said. There is no precedent or clear legal basis for a president to distribute tariff revenue to Americans in the form of checks, so if any kind of stimulus check were to occur, it would likely come from another funding source under Trump’s control, he said.
Stimulus checks sent early in the COVID-19 pandemic were approved by Congress under exceptional circumstances, Durlauf pointed out. On the contrary, personal rebate checks have already been proposed in Congress, but no progress has been made. In July 2025, Senator Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, introduced the American Worker Rebate Act to provide at least $600 to eligible individuals from fare income, but the bill received no further action in committee.
And while Trump suggested that the $1,776 checks sent to military members during the holidays came from tariff revenue, they actually came from military housing funds appropriated by Congress to the Defense Department.
Companies are winning in their battle for refunds
The Supreme Court’s decision was a victory for thousands of companies, including importers such as Costco, Revlon and Goodyear Tires, who sued to recover billions in tariffs that had already been collected.
The Trump administration has said in court that the companies would get their money back if the Supreme Court overturns the tariffs. But those refunds could still be a long way off. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters in January that repayments could be spread out over weeks or even a year.
“It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our country to pay,” Trump previously said on social media about the prospect of refunds. On February 20, he said at a press conference that the Supreme Court did not address how refunds would work.
For Americans wondering whether the need to pay back revenue from the tariffs will extinguish hopes for a stimulus check, Durlauf said the cause and effect are not so simple. Initially, tariff revenues likely weren’t enough to cover checks, and they were probably only tied to tariff revenues by Trump to regain support after the tariffs proved unpopular, Durlauf said.
“The bottom line is it wasn’t as likely before, and it’s less likely now,” Durlauf said of the refund checks to taxpayers.
Contributing: Bart Jansen, Maureen Groppe, Kinsey Crowley and Daniel de Visé, USA TODAY; Reuters
(This story has been updated to add new information and add a video.)
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can you get a big check on rate discounts? Here’s the latest.
Reporting by Jeanine Santucci, USA TODAY / USA TODAY
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
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