1.) Infosys, Wipro ADRs rebound – After a brutal two-day sell-off that saw Infosys and Wipro ADRs fall as much as 14.5%, Friday’s session brought a much-needed breather. The bargain hunt started at lower levels, leading to a sharp recovery as Infosys rose 3% while Wipro rose 4%, allowing both stocks to end the week on a much stronger note. Global brokerage firm JP Morgan has a message for panicked investors: IT services companies are the indispensable “plumbers of the tech world” and their dividend yields have now reached levels last seen only during the global financial crisis and COVID-19.With Rs 5.7 lakh crore evaporating from the sector in just eight trading sessions and the Nifty IT index crashing 19% in a short space of time, the Wall Street giant is turning contrarian and declaring ‘deep value’ buying opportunities at bloodied whistleblowers Infosys and TCS.
2.) US CPI figures lift bets on rate cuts – US inflation data has raised expectations of monetary easing after the consumer price index rose 2.4% year-on-year, slightly below economists’ estimates of 2.5%, a Reuters poll showed. The softer data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve could make at least two interest rate cuts this year.
The moderation in headline inflation drew a positive response from the White House, with a spokesperson saying on social media that the US economy could gain further momentum from long-awaited interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Still, concerns about the job market and rising costs of living continue to weigh on public sentiment, with many Americans expressing unease about economic conditions and dissatisfaction with Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.
3.) How FIIs navigate AIled to fears of disruption – VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Investments Limited FIIs remained net sellers to the tune of Rs 1,374 crore so far. The headline figure was distorted by a sharp sell-off of Rs 7,395 crore on February 13, when the Nifty fell 336 points amid heavy selling in IT stocks after the anthropic shock, with the IT index plunging 8.2% in the week ended February 13. Vijayakumar added that market sentiment has strengthened following the fiscally prudent and growth-oriented Budget 2026 and the India-US trade deal. Large-cap valuations appear reasonable given the improving FY27 corporate earnings outlook. He expects FIIs to become buyers once volatility in the IT sector subsides, adding that any further reduction in AI trade in the US could further encourage foreign flows into India, which he described as a non-AI market.
4.) Rupee vs Dollar – The Indian rupee closed at 90.64 per US dollar, little changed from the previous close of 90.59. A strengthening US dollar, which has risen to 96.95 for the third time in a row, is generally negative for equities as it could trigger an outflow of foreign funds from emerging markets such as India to safer assets in the United States.
“USD/INR remains in a short-term corrective consolidation after rejecting recent highs, but continues to trade comfortably above rising channel support near 90.20-90.40. The 90.00 zone remains the structural linchpin; as long as this base is defended, the broader upside trend remains intact. A phase of consolidation seems likely ahead of a renewed attempt towards 91.80-92.50, which in turn continues to provide underlying support to the domestic precious metal price dynamics,” Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
5.) Technical indicators flashing weakness – The Nifty has decisively broken below its recent consolidation range to close below 25,500 after testing lower levels and forming a strong bearish candle amid rising downside momentum largely led by weakness in IT stocks. The index is now hovering near a critical support zone at 25,400–25,300, which coincides with the 200-DMA and 200-EMA clusters, while a deeper safety net is visible around 25,200–25,000, says Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Immediate resistance is at 25,550–25,600, near the 20-SMA and a previous support area. A sustained move above 25,700–25,800 will be needed to signal stabilization and potentially pave the way to 26,000, where strong overhead supply remains.
As long as 25,300 holds on a closing basis, the broader structural uptrend remains technically intact. However, a decisive break below this level could trigger sharper downward pressure towards lower supports. Options data indicates a bearish bias, with aggressive call writing at higher strikes and new put construction at lower levels. The short-term trading range is between 25,200 and 25,700, with the strategy leaning towards selective dip buying in strong support zones, while closely monitoring global signals and open interest shifts.
6.) US GDP data next week – Market participants will be closely watching the upcoming minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, along with US GDP data for the October-December quarter, both due next week. These releases are expected to provide clearer signals about the central bank’s policy trajectory and the short-term outlook for interest rates.
For Indian markets, such global signals carry added weight, especially in light of volatile Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) flows. While there were early indications of picking up inflows, sentiment turned cautious after sharp selling on the last trading day of the week amid a global tech-led crisis.
7.) Geopolitical tensions – The US military is preparing for the possibility of sustained, weeks-long operations against Iran if US President Donald Trump approves military action, Reuters reported, citing two officials, signaling the risk of a much more serious escalation between the two countries. The revelation has raised the stakes for continued diplomacy, even as U.S. and Iranian representatives recently met in Oman in an effort to revive talks over Tehran’s nuclear program after a buildup of U.S. forces in the region raised tensions. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has begun deploying an additional aircraft carrier to the Middle East, along with thousands of troops, fighter jets and guided missile destroyers, boosting both offensive and defensive military capabilities.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions expressed by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
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