Welcome friends to The Turk Blog, where I write about mostly older horses running grass routes and put together exact bets based on that. I’ve been a handicapper since the mid-1980s and a horse racing blogger since 2008.
I didn’t think Ethical diamond had a chance.
Nothing here screams it: a Virgo at the start of the 5 YO campaign. His jockey jumped to 2X Grass Winner Romance of the Rebels.
Nothing here calls for a winner: most of his $521,000 in 2025 earnings after a brutal 2024 (someone believed in him!). The race graph implies pressing and not deeper closer. Only 1/5 of his earnings from this distance.
Breeders’ Cup Grass Field G1: 1 1/2 miles for ages 3 and up
September 14, 2025; Curragh; Irish army G1;
Amiloc (GB) Place finish for 3 year old gelding. 6 out of 6 Exacta for life
September 27, 2025; Aqueduct; Turf Classic G1;
The Cordobes (Ire) (Show 3 3/4 back), Rebel Red (GB) (5th 7 3/4 back), Romance of the Rebels (Ire) (Win 3 1/2 ahead), Redistribution (GB) (Put 3 1/2 back)
August 23, 2025; York (GB); It will be the handicap bets Class 2;
Ethical diamond (Ire) (Win by 2 1/2)
September 27, 2025; Santa Anita; John Henry Turf Championship G1;
Golden Phoenix (Ire) (Win by 1 1/4 lead)
September 7, 2025; Baden-Baden (Germany); Grand Prix of Baden G1;
Goliath (German) (Win by 1 1/4 lengths)
October 4, 2025; Aqueduct; Jockey Club Derby for invited guests G2;
Hill Road (Show 2 1/2 lengths back)
October 5, 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prize of the Arc de Triomphe G1;
Minnie Hauk (Ire) (Place near a head)
October 4, 2025; Longchamp (Fr); Prix dollar G2;
Rashabar (Ire) (4th – 4 lengths back – (French video only-green, blue sleeves, green spots on white #9 horse)
October 4, 2025; Woodbine; Canadian International G1;
Silawi (Ire) (Win by a nose), Tawny Port (Place by a nose)
August 30, 2025; Kentucky Downs; Nashville derby G3
Wimbledon Hawkeye (GB) (Win by head), Hill Road (Show 3 3/4 lengths back)
The Breeders Cup Turf G1: 1 1/2 miles on the Del Mar Turf course, for 3 YOs and older
What I said Prerace:
I wanted to call this an interesting field, and then I thought about it, and whether you deleted it Minnie Hauk (Ire) And Romance of the Rebels (Ire) from the field, then it would be very interesting American Grass field race class 1. Including them makes this a top-heavy race with a fairly mediocre bottom end of the field, especially at the outside posts. The filly, Minnie Hauk (Ire)I didn’t think it was appropriate as a favorite in the morning line at 8-5. Yes, she carries 7 kilos less than Romance of the Rebels but it is her 8th start, the farthest she has traveled before coming to Del Mar was from Ireland to France, a flight too short to hand out free drinks. If this filly wins at age 3, it will be shocking and historic. Yes it can, I don’t think it will happen. But it’s not exactly like that Romance of the Rebels winning will bring value. Together they accounted for 51.5% of the adjusted Morning Line and 53.6% of Turk’s Fair Odds. I think we’ll have to be creative with the betting structure to realize value.
1. Have Romance of the Rebels (Ire) or Minnie Hauk (Ire) first with a few logical late runners in place.
2. Swing for the Fence: Place a pair of horses (my non-RED) on the win spot and place both Minnie Hauk And Romance of the Rebels at Place Place.
I priced both at $24 Dollars. Options:
$2 Exacta: 1-8 MORE THAN 2-10-4-3-9-6 for $24
OR
$2 Exact 2-10-4-3-9-6 MORE THAN 1-8
I’m not wasting money on the most logical one: a 1-8 Boxed finish.
Exact history for 2024-2
Tomlinson analysis for turf and distance:
The race repeat
Ethical diamond run in the visualization below is just as impressive as what my eyes saw. Pay $282 on a $2 exacta at 2-1 Romance of the Rebelsit showed the strategy I had to put the favorites in place and some of the long shots in Win Spot were good, I just picked the wrong long shot. Honestly, I didn’t see this coming and sometimes you can complete the autopsy and come away with no other lesson except that you can’t win ’em all!
Have fun friends, Turk out!
#Breeders #Cup #Turf #handicap #postmortem