On paper, it seems strange that the Red Sox are trying to move Bello when they have spent most of the offseason trying to strengthen their rotation. Bello is coming off a season in which he posted a 3.35 ERA over a career-best 166 2/3 innings, and the righty has played 486 games in 87 games (86 of them starts) for the Sox over the past three years.
In March 2024, the Red Sox showed their commitment to Bello by signing him to a six-year, $55 million extension for the 2024-29 seasons, and Boston has a $21 million club option on Bello for the 2030 season, including a $1 million buyout. Bello doesn’t return until May 27, so between his age and the long-term contract, it appears the Red Sox have a homegrown arm that will be in the rotation for at least the rest of the decade.
However, as Rosenthal and Sammon note, it makes sense for the Red Sox to at least test the waters on what they can get for Bello given the value of controllable starting pitching. Even if “control” in this sense reflects Bello’s expansion rather than a player’s arbitration or the years before arbitration, Bello’s remaining price tag of $50.5 million over the next four seasons seems like a fair price, and possibly even still a bargain.
While Bello has been solid during his four MLB seasons, it’s fair to say the Red Sox were hoping for a little more from a pitcher who racked up much bigger strikeouts in the minors. In the Show, Bello has just a 19.8% strikeout rate over 543 1/3 career innings, and his 17.7K% this season was the lowest of his career. He has an unspectacular career walk rate of 8.3%, which goes along with that lack of missed bats.
Bello has had good results limiting hard contact and inducing a lot of groundballs, with a 52.7% groundball rate for his career. His 90-mph fastball has a set velocity, but Bello’s sinker is his primary pitch, even if the sinker’s effectiveness doesn’t tend to vary in consistency. Over his career, Bello’s ERA of 4.09 isn’t much below his SIERA of 4.26, but that gap widened significantly in 2025 (3.35 to 4.55).
The Red Sox entered the offseason with many big league-ready or experienced players in their organization, but there was a clear goal to raise the ceiling of the rotation with more established pitchers. To date, Son Gray And Johan Oviedo were brought in via trades with the Cardinals and Pirates, respectively, and will now be part of Boston’s 2026 rotation. Richard Fitts and left-handed pitcher Brandon Clarke were distributed to St. Louis for Gray, a lower-level judge Naughty Jesus was moved to Pittsburgh as part of the Oviedo trade, and Boston sent right-handed Hunter Dobbins and two more lower-level weapons for the Cardinals in a separate trade for first baseman Willson Contreras.
Whether the Red Sox are actually trying to trade Bello or are just listening to offers out of due diligence remains unclear, as the Rosenthal/Sammon item implies. The truth may lie somewhere among all the common terminology for off-season hot stoves. Still, chief baseball officer of the Red Sox Craig Breslow has said his team is open to moving controllable pitching”to tackle other parts of the list.”
Trading Bello would be a lot different than moving a pitcher like Fitts or Dobbins or someone else who isn’t even guaranteed a big league job in 2026. Still, a Bello deal would in some ways be an elevated version of the raise-the-ceiling strategy. If the front office has any doubts about Bello’s ability to maintain his production, or if he is no longer viewed as a pitcher who can be reliably counted on for a playoff rotation, the Red Sox could potentially look to deal Bello. Speculatively, he could be traded for a clearer frontline pitcher with fewer years of control, or perhaps moved to fill a need in the lineup.
In those same notes, Rosenthal and Sammon also write that the Red Sox remain involved with the Cardinals Brendan Donovan. However, Boston is one of several teams linked to Donovan’s market, and the most recent reports suggested the Mariners and Giants were the favorites to lure Donovan away from St. Louis. That said, Cards president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has shown a lot of willingness to do business with his former Boston team, and Bloom’s time managing the Sox front office overlaps with much of Bello’s career. Speculatively, the length of Bello’s extension could make him a factor in a Cardinals rotation even after the team goes through the rebuilding period, even if the Cardinals are more likely to explore higher prospects in a Donovan trade package.
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