Bracketology: Where UNC and Kentucky are expected to land in the NCAA tournament

The last big Saturday of non-conference action is just around the corner, and it offers one last chance for several major teams to make a statement before the league kicks off again after Christmas. Among them are four branded programs that will be featured in the CBS Sports Classic.

First up is tip-off at 12:30 PM ET from the State Farm Arena in Atlanta. Saturday features No. 6 seed St. John’s versus No. 7 seed Kentucky. The game marks a reunion between UK coach Mark Pope and St. John’s coach Rick Pitino, who coached Pope as part of the Wildcats’ 1996 national championship team.

Between their connection and some early season issues for both teams, the match will be dripping with intrigue. The second game of the CBS Sports Classic will see No. 3 North Carolina take on Ohio State, as the Tar Heels look to continue a strong start that has moved them to No. 12 in the AP Top 25 rankings. Finally, a big tripleheader on CBS concludes with No. 4 seed Houston and No. 5 seed Arkansas at the Prudential Center in New Jersey.

Between these three games, all five major conferences will be on CBS in a blockbuster wave of action. Heading into the day, here’s how our CBS Sports Bracketology is shaping up, courtesy of our model developed by Sportsline’s Jacob Fetner.

Bracketology top seeds

On the bubble

Last four in

First four out

Bracketology Takeaways

Projecting conference tournament winners

Now that most of college basketball’s non-conference data has been collected, the CBS Sports Bracketology model has gained insight into how each league game is likely to play out. Here are the three most likely conference tournament winners from each of the major leagues.

ACC
Duke: 29.9%
Louisville: 29.2%
Virginia: 14.7%

Big 12
State of Iowa: 27.2%
Arizona: 21.0%
BYU: 14.8%

Big East
UConn: 40.6%
Saint John: 23.7%
Villanova: 14.6%

Big Ten
Purdue: 24.8%
Michigan: 21.5%
Illinois: 14.6%

SEC
Alabama: 23.2%
Florida: 16.0%
Tennessee: 13.4%

Taking major injuries into account

If not for an injury to leading scorer Markus Burton, Notre Dame would be ranked No. 11 in the CBS Sports Bracketology field. But with the star junior guard expected to miss extended periods of time due to ankle surgery, the prospects for the Fighting Irish have changed. It’s a tough blow, especially considering Burton missed seven games last season due to a knee injury. The Fighting Irish went 1-4 against big foes a year ago without Burton, and their prospects are the same without him this season.

Likewise, a season-ending shoulder injury for star USC guard Rodney Rice has changed the calculus on the Trojans. With the Quads 1-2 at 5-1, the CBS Sports Bracketology model has the Trojans as the No. 5 seed based on their resume. But with Rice out, they ended up as #8. Longer term, the Trojans will land at No. 11 according to our model.

Making sense of Boise State

Boise State’s resume is difficult to assess through the CBS Sports Bracketology model, and it could be difficult for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee as well. The Broncos lost to Division II Hawaii Pacific to open the season, which is a cataclysmic loss. However, because the game was not against a Division I opponent, it will not be included in Boise State’s NET rankings. So on the face of it, the Broncos are an impeccable 5-0 outside of Quad 1 with a respectable 2-2 inside Quad 1. However, that doesn’t mean the Broncos get a pass for their season-opening loss. Wins over Butler and Saint Mary’s this month have revived the Broncos’ overall hopes, but for now we have them on the wrong side of the bubble.