For college sports fans who turn their full attention to basketball after the thrill of Indiana College football Playoff National Championship Game win over Miami, welcome to what has been an exciting season so far. Freshman stars are once again a hallmark of the sport, the top conference hierarchy is well balanced and the race for the No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament has plenty of worthy challengers.
If you’re looking for an Indiana-type underdog to cheer for, Nebraska is the way to go. The Cornhuskers, picked to finish 14th in the Big Ten before the season, are one of two remaining undefeated high-major programs along with Arizona.
Like the pre-Curt Cignetti football Hoosiers, Nebraska is a program with no history to draw from, which makes its sudden rise particularly stunning. The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game and finished just 14-45 in coach Fred Hoiberg’s first two seasons.
Still, here they are as a No. 2 seed in the CBS Sports Bracketology model and not far off from a No. 1 seed. Major Big Ten challenges await teams like Michigan and Purdue, both of which are No. 1 in our model, and predictive metrics suggest the Cornhuskers may be due for regression as the grind of league play continues.
But no matter how you look at it, this is and will likely remain a historic season for Nebraska.
Here is the latest output from the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
Bracketology top seeds
The NCAA tournament field and seeding as projected by SportsLine’s Bracketology simulation
On the bubble
Last four in
First four out
Bracketology Takeaways
Quad 1 priority
Our model is not a fan of teams that have yet to achieve a Quad 1 victory. Take the state of Utah for example. The Aggies are only seeded No. 10 despite being ranked No. 21 in the NET, largely because they don’t have a Quad 1 win. Other top-40 NET teams without a Quad 1 win include Saint Mary’s, NC State, Ohio State and Indiana. The Buckeyes currently find themselves narrowly in the field as one of the Last Four In, but the others remain on the wrong side of the bubble.
Even a single Quad 1 win would do wonders for their resume. Sometimes one is all it takes. Just ask North Carolina, which made the First Four last season with a dismal 1-12 record in Quad 1.
Buckyball on the rise
Four of Texas A&M’s five Quad 1/2 wins have come in the new year, as the Aggies are off to a 4-1 start in the SEC under first-year coach Bucky McMillan. As a result, A&M is tied with Florida at the top of the SEC standings and within the cut as the No. 9 seed.
What has to be maddening for Texas A&M is how close it is to going 5-0 with another strong Quad 1 victory. Last week’s double overtime loss at Tennessee is all that stands between Buckyball and solo possession of first place in the league, along with an even better Bracketology position.
Still, A&M is on the rise as it enters a manageable but dangerous week that includes home games against Mississippi State and South Carolina. The Aggies are comfortable favorites in both games, but they are currently Quad 3 contests. Texas A&M has built some solid resume material over the past three weeks, but much of that could be undone in an instant by poor performances against the Bulldogs or Gamecocks.
Staggering Seton Hall
Seton Hall’s two-game miscue, including a Quad 2 home loss Saturday to Butler, has left the Big East in a precarious position. The Pirates remain in contention as the No. 9 seed and will face off against St. John’s at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night.
Another loss would put the Pirates one step closer to the bubble and the Big East one step closer to potential three-bid territory. Butler and Creighton aren’t dead yet, but they are currently completely out of the bigger picture. Seton Hall is the conference’s top pick for a new bid outside the group of UConn, St. John’s and Villanova.
A top-10 defense gives coach Shaheen Holloway’s club a chance, but with KenPom.com’s No. 144 ranked offense, Seton Hall has to fight for everything he can get. It will be an exciting stretch run in New Jersey.
Rematch Rules
Amid conference consolidation and the increase in non-conference matchups between high schools, the NCAA Tournament selection committee faces challenges when it comes to avoiding regular season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament featured three potential second-round matchups between conference teams, though none came to fruition.
The committee will still attempt to minimize conference meetings and non-conference retakes, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles allow second-round games between conference teams as long as the teams in question played each other only once before the NCAA tournament. For conference teams that have met twice prior to the NCAA tournament, the principles state that they may not meet before the Sweet 16. If the teams played three times, the NCAA bracketing principles state that they may not play before the Elite Eight.
Regarding rematches of non-conference games, the NCAA bracketing principles state that they should be avoided “in the first four and the first round.” The committee will also “seek to avoid out-of-conference rematches in the second round.” But the committee has historically prioritized keeping teams at their natural seed line over changing their seed line to avoid a rematch.
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