Virginia and Kansas each have big chances Saturday to maximize their seeding potential for the NCAA Tournament, as the final day of February brings a college basketball schedule full of Bracketology implications. The Cavaliers are a No. 3 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology entering the day, while the Jayhawks are a No. 4 seed.
Both take over the projected No. 1 seeds on the road. Virginia travels to Durham, NC to take on Duke, while Kansas heads to Tucson to take on Arizona. If UVA topples No. 1 Duke on the road, it would skyrocket the Cavaliers’ resume stats and open up new possibilities.
At 25-3 (13-2 ACC), Virginia is thriving under first-year coach Ryan Odom. Despite their gaudy record, the Cavaliers have been held back to some extent — at least from a seeding perspective — by their light non-conference schedule. With the program getting a full restart after last year’s 15-17 season, Odom opted for a manageable non-conference slate that ranks 211th in NET strength. As a result, the Cavaliers haven’t had the big wins needed to flirt with the No. 2 seed. Beating Duke would change that.
If Kansas aims to compete for a No. 3 seed or even a No. 2 seed, it will likely have to upset Arizona along the way. As the highest-ranked No. 4 seed in CBS Sports Bracketology, the Jayhawks would be well-positioned to move up if they win on the road as a 9.5-point underdog.
Bracketology top seeds
See the full field of 68 on the CBS Sports Bracketology hub.
Margin for error
Both Duke and Arizona have a margin for error when it comes to staying at No. 1, and a loss on Saturday would put neither at risk of falling since both have amassed such significant field leads in many of the metrics used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. However, if Duke wants to retain its distinction as the No. 1 overall seed, it needs to win. Michigans Friday night win over Illinois means the Wolverines remain squarely on the heels of the Blue Devils in the race to become the top seed in the bracket. Even a loss to a good Virginia team from Duke would likely send Michigan back to first place.
Rematch Rules
Amid conference consolidation and the increase in non-conference matchups between high schools, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee faces challenges when it comes to avoiding regular-season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament featured three potential second-round matchups between conference teams, though none came to fruition.
The committee will still attempt to minimize conference meetings and non-conference retakes, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles allow second-round games between conference teams as long as the teams in question played each other only once before the NCAA tournament. For conference teams that have met twice prior to the NCAA tournament, the principles state that they may not meet before the Sweet 16. If the teams played three times, the NCAA bracketing principles state that they may not play before the Elite Eight.
Regarding rematches of non-conference games, the NCAA bracketing principles state that they should be avoided “in the first four and the first round.” The committee will also “seek to avoid out-of-conference rematches in the second round.” But the committee has historically prioritized keeping teams at their natural seed line over changing their seed line to avoid a rematch.
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