Life comes at you fast in the world of college basketball. One minute you’re alone at the top of the SEC standings and the next minute you’re suddenly in the NCAA Tournament bubble. This is the situation Texas A&M (17-7, 7-4 SEC) finds itself in when it plays at No. 19 Vanderbilt on Saturday.
The Aggies are trailing by three games, including losses to Alabama and Missouri, who combined for four points. Looking at those results, it’s easy to play the “what if” game with Texas A&M. What if he hadn’t been forced to play at Alabama during Charles Bediako’s five-game stint with the Crimson Tide? Could playing Bama without Bediako have tipped the balance in A&M’s favor during what turned out to be a 100-97 loss?
What if the ending to an 87-82 double-overtime loss at Tennessee had gone slightly differently? A win over Tennessee or Alabama would have given A&M a ton of resume-boosting. The maddening thing is that A&M is good enough to win those games. Their fast-paced, high-pressing, three-point-oriented style under first-year coach Bucky McMillan is working, and it has the Aggies averaging around 30th nationally in the predictive analytics used by the selection committee.
Where A&M is lacking now is the CV metrics that are often used along the tournament boundary. With a profile in the mid-to-high 40s, A&M should start adding to the win column as it tries to bounce back from a lackluster non-conference performance. “Buckyball” wasn’t a well-oiled machine in early November, and A&M couldn’t get any significant resume padding done before the competition started.
As a result, it’s a bit close for comfort at Texas A&M.
Here’s the look at this weekend’s games involving bubble teams, including a “double bubble” showdown between TCU and Oklahoma State, with both teams competing for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
Check out the latest CBS Sports Bracketology model bracket on the Bracketology hub
All times ET
Bubble teams in action this weekend
Cal
Going into the weekend: Next four out
Saturday at Boston College | 12:00 (ACC Network)
The first leg of Cal’s northeastern ACC swing resulted in a 107-100 double overtime loss at Syracuse. The loss is limited to Quad 1 status for now, but a loss at Boston College would be much more expensive. Even on the road, facing the Eagles (9-15, 2-9 ACC), it’s a Quad 3 affair for the Bears, who have fallen a whopping 16 spots at KenPom since briefly rising to No. 54 last week.
State of Oklahoma
Going into the weekend: Next four out
Saturday vs. TCU | 12:00 PM (ESPN2)
The Oklahoma State surge quickly receded after an initial surge sparked by a win over BYU on Feb. 4. After a 37-point loss at Arizona and a loss to Arizona State on Tuesday, the Cowboys need to be right. Home games against TCU on Saturday and Kansas on Wednesday will be challenging, but they are winnable games against quality opponents that could push the Pokes back in the right direction.
TCU
Going into the weekend: Last four in
Saturday at Oklahoma State | 12:00 PM (ESPN2)
TCU defeated Oklahoma State 68-65 in the first meeting on Jan. 20 as the Horned Frogs were coming off a 1-4 start to Big 12 play. Beating the Cowboys was the start of a 4-2 stretch that could become a 5-2 stretch if TCU can complete a sweep. Tuesday’s upset at Iowa State adds to a win over Florida on Nov. 27 at a neutral site, showing this team’s potential.
Texas A&M
Going into the weekend: Last four in
Saturday at Vanderbilt | 1:00 PM (SEC Network)
It may understandably be shocking to Aggies fans who saw their team at the top of the SEC standings earlier this month. First-year coach Bucky McMillan is doing a great job, but the Aggies have found themselves on the wrong side of too many close games, and that has hurt their resume a bit. While predictive metrics like a No. 35 KenPom ranking still favor A&M, a No. 45 WAB ranking tells us that A&M is losing its margin of error.
Virginia technology
Going into the weekend: First four out
Saturday vs. Miami | 4 p.m. (ESPN2)
Virginia Tech’s 76-66 win over Clemson on Wednesday is worth significantly more in WAB than any other win the Hokies (17-8, 6-6 ACC) have had this season. A home loss to Florida State would give it all back. That’s basically the story for the rest of Virginia Tech’s season, as it features low-value home games (FSU, Wake Forest and Boston College) interspersed with high-end road showdowns with high value (Miami, North Carolina and Virginia).
VCU
Going into the weekend: First four out
Saturday vs. Richmond | 6 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
VCU has won eight in a row, but the big odds could all come down to whether it can upset Saint Louis on Feb. 20. In the meantime, it faces a cross-city rivalry showdown with a Richmond team that just came off a six-game losing streak by beating Atlantic 10 stalwart George Mason. The Rams can’t take this lightly.
State of Ohio
Going into the weekend: First four out
Saturday vs. Virginia | 8 p.m. (Fox)
Ohio State finally has a Quad 1 win. Of course, it’s not because of another win the Buckeyes have had. It’s because their Dec. 6 win at Northwestern now counts as a Quad 1 win based on where the Wildcats stand in the NET (for now, anyway). Beating Virginia on a neutral floor would give Ohio State the kind of resume boost it needs along with a predictive analytics profile that hovers around 40th nationally.
Missouri
Going into the weekend: Last four in
Saturday vs. Texas | 8:30 PM (ESPN2)
Missouri posted an 86-85 win at Texas A&M on Wednesday to move to 17-7 and 7-4 in the SEC. A year ago, winning even six SEC games was good enough for guaranteed entry into the NCAA Tournament. But the competition isn’t as strong this season, and the Tigers have a lot of ground to make up after playing a terrible non-conference schedule.
San Diego State
Going into the weekend: First four out
Saturday vs. Nevada | 10 p.m. (CBS Sports Network)
San Diego State’s next six games are projected as Quad 2 or Quad 1 opportunities, giving the Aztecs a chance to make a late impact. If this team misses the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019, it will look back and rue a double-digit home loss to Troy on Nov. 18. Overcoming that Quad 3 loss without any high-quality wins to tout will require significant win volume from SDSU.
St. Mary’s
Going into the weekend: Last four in
Saturday at Pacific | 10:30 PM (ESPN2)
If Saint Mary’s makes the Big Dance as a major team, it may want to consider writing a thank you note to Virginia Tech. A win over the Hokies starting Nov. 27 in the Battle 4 Atlantis means overtime to keep the Gaels’ resume afloat. The Hokies’ rise to the NET has led to Saint Mary’s finally getting a Quad 1 win (for now). Although they have 17 low-end Quad 3/4 wins, the Gaels still rate as a top-40 team in the metrics used by the committee.
Saint Clara
Going into the weekend: No. 11 seed (projected WCC champion)
Saturday vs. Gonzaga | 10:30 PM (ESPN)
If the season were to end today and someone other than Santa Clara won the WCC tournament, the Broncos would have about a 50-50 chance of making the field, according to the CBS Sports Bracketology model. The Broncos possess an interesting tournament profile, ranking them 40th in both CV and predictive metrics. But with just one Quad 1 win and an ugly Quad 4 loss to Loyola Chicago in December, things are uncertain. Beating Gonzaga would do wonders as it would give Santa Clara another statement win in addition to the win over Saint Mary’s on January 17.
Seton Hall
Going into the weekend: Next four out
Sunday at Butler | 6:00 PM (FS1)
Seton Hall is fading, and that’s a shame because this team could be the USA team in the NCAA tournament. Coach Shaheen Holloway – formerly of Saint Peter’s fame – has his team playing lockdown defense, and the Pirates have one of the sport’s nicest point guards in the undersized Adam “Budd” Clark. Losing here would not be advisable in what is developing as a marginal Quad 1 or 2 game.
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