The Toronto rotation currently includes Cease, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage And Jose Berrioswith boys like Eric Lauer, Ricky Tiedemann And Bowden Francis also in the mix.
That’s a pretty strong group, but there are some question marks. Bieber’s decision to activate his $16 million player option has led to speculation that he may not be 100% healthy. He could have taken a $4 million buyout and returned to free agency, needing only $12 million to move forward, but a new deal would have required him to pass a physical. To be clear, that’s completely speculative. There’s no public indication that there’s anything wrong with Bieber, but it’s a possible explanation as to why he didn’t pursue a bigger deal. Another explanation could be that he simply wanted to stay with the Jays for one more year before heading to free agency after a fully healthy season.
In addition, Gausman turns 35 in January. Yesavage made a great debut late in the year, but still has little experience in the big league. Berríos had a mediocre season in 2025, finishing the season on the injured list due to elbow inflammation, though he will likely have a normal offseason. Lauer worked as both a starter and reliever in 2025 and appears likely to do so again next year. Tiedemann has been on the candidate list for years, but already had workload concerns before Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2025 season. Francis had a good showing in 2024 but was held back by shoulder problems this year.
There is also a long-term picture to consider. Gausman, Bieber and Lauer are all scheduled for free agency after 2026. Berríos can also opt out of his deal at that time. There has reportedly been some consideration to trade Berríos, but that will be a challenge given his health status, results and opt-out. The general point is that there is not much certainty in the long run. Signing Cease has upgraded the rotation for the upcoming campaign and beyond. Another acquisition could do the same.
Gore is a pretty straightforward trade candidate. The Nationals are rebuilding and likely won’t compete again for a while. Gore will be monitored for another two years and will be represented by the Boras Corporation. It’s not true that Boras prospects never sign extensions, but it’s a good bet that Gore and Boras are looking toward free agency.
It’s worth noting that the Jays were interested in him before the deadline, but his situation has changed somewhat since then. He was dominant during the All-Star break in 2025, as he had a 3.02 earned run average, a 30.5% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate at that point. But he struggled down the stretch and went on the IL twice, first for shoulder inflammation and then for ankle impingement. His results suffered and he finished the year with an ERA of 4.17.
The Nats are receiving interest in Gore this offseason, but may have to wait until the upcoming trade deadline if they don’t get offers they like. According to MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, he will make $4.7 million next year, with another arbitration check beyond that. The Nats have very little on their books and don’t need to move him for financial reasons. If the Jays want to return to Gore, they may have to bring a notable prospect package to the table.
The situation with Ryan is somewhat analogous. He is also two years away from the open market, with a projected salary of $5.8 million next year. He has been a pretty consistently above-average pitcher throughout his career. In his 641 1/3 innings, he has a 3.79 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 5.7% walk rate.
The Twins seemed to be starting a rebuild or retool or reset or whatever at the deadline. They traded a number of relievers, including Louis Varland to the Jays, and shipped Carlos Correa back to Houston. Entering this offseason, many expected Ryan and other Twins to be on the trade block, but Minnesota’s president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has downplayed the idea that he should continue to make cuts from the roster.
If the Jays can’t find solutions on the trade market, they could sign another free agent. Nicholson-Smith reports that King “could be of interest.” Although the jays would not directly sacrifice their prospects, they would still damage their agricultural system. King rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres and is therefore subject to the associated penalties. Because the Jays paid the competitive balance tax in 2025, they would forfeit two draft picks and $1 million in international bonus pool space. Cease also turned down a QO from the Padres, so the Jays have already paid that price. If they ended up with Cease and King, it would mean giving up a total of four draft picks and $2 million from their bonus pool.
It’s unclear if the Jays would be willing to go that route. It probably depends on the financial price they would have to pay to sign King. He appeared to be on track for a nine-figure deal before injuries hampered his 2025 signing. MLBTR projected him for a four-year, $80 million deal, but it’s possible King is looking for a shorter deal with opt-outs so he can return to free agency with a healthier platform season.
He had a very strong run from the second half of 2023 to early 2025. With the Yankees in 2023, he was blocked and stuck in a relief role. Because the Yanks had a losing season two years ago, they let King take a rotation job. He performed well and was sent to the Padres before 2024, which ended up being his best season. From August 24, 2023 through May 18, 2025, he pitched 267 2/3 innings with an ERA of 2.72, a strikeout rate of 28.4% and a walk rate of 8.1%. FanGraphs had him seventh among pitchers in the majors in wins above replacement for that span, trailing only Pull Skubal, Chris Sales, Zack Wieler, Logan Webb, Cole Ragans and stop.
However, the final months of 2025 were marred by injuries. A nerve injury in his shoulder left him on the shelf for several months. He left the IL in August, but left knee inflammation sent him right back there. He returned in September and wasn’t great, allowing ten earned runs in his final 15 2/3 innings. The Padres kicked off Game Three in the Wild Card round Yu Darvishwho was 39 years old and dealing with elbow problems that would require surgery a month later, instead of King.
All of this makes King one of the more interesting free agents of the offseason. He was a top performer there for a while, but has only had one big league season with more than fifteen starts. Teams likely have different opinions on what they expect from him in the future.
As for Ponce, he’s also a wildcard, but for different reasons. His MLB track record is small, but he pitches well overseas. He just completed a season in which he pitched 180 2/3 innings for the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization with a 1.89 ERA. His 252 strikeouts were a KBO single-season record. He was named the league’s MVP for his dominant season but remains unproven in North American ball. Either way, it’s been reported that he could make between $30 million and $40 million on a three-year deal.
Only time will tell how aggressively the Jays move after another rotation upgrade. They still have needs elsewhere, including the back end of the bullpen. Bringing in an impact bat, like Kyle Tucker or reunion with Bo Bichetteseems to be on the to-do list too. Grid source predicts the Jays will have a payroll of $263 million and a competitive balance of $272 million next year. Those figures were $258 million and $283 million at the end of 2025. It’s unclear how much further they can go, but perhaps their deep playoff run in 2025 will have provided some additional spending power in 2026.
Photo courtesy of Matt Krohn, Imagn Images
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