According to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, what used to be an almost perfect Bitcoin pattern of four years, is now less reliable. Release reductions, tariff movements and crash risks have driven large fluctuations once. Now fresh forces are taking over.
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The impact of Halving shrinks every cycle
Hougan points out that everyone Bitcoin Halving still cuts new coins with 50%, but is less important over time. In early cycles, that shock fed parabolic runs.
Nowadays, with market capitalization in the hundreds of billions, the same supply cut is half as important every four years. In 2016 and 2020, prices rose by more than 150% around half -it -all. Now moves less than 50% in comparable windows.
The interest rates have been more friendly this time based on the analysis of the Bitwise CIO. In 2018 and 2022 the tightening by the American Federal Reserve coincided with brutal crypto drops that Bitcoin sent 72% and 69% from peak to trough. Now the rates are broken down or break, so crypto often acts instead of down.
Why is the four -year cycle dead?
1) The forces that previously created four -year cycles are weaker:
i) The halving is half as important every four years;
ii) the interest cycle is positive for crypto, not negative (such as in 2018 and 2022);
iii) Bloated risk is … https://t.co/f9ybjhheeb5
– Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) July 25, 2025
Institutional trends avoid old rhythms
Hougan emphasizes that ETFs are the new growth motor – and they work on a timeline of 5-10 years. Spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024 and have since included more than $ 10 billion in net inflow. That steady current cannot be attached to a single four -year -old blip.
Pensions and donations are also preparing. Many large investors only started talking crypto last year, and it takes quarters or years before they erase internal obstacles. When they finally jump in, their billions can reform the markets far above the retail waves.
🚨did I hear super cycle ???
The four -year cycle is dead and the adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan Says that we are going higher in 2026.
Early profit makers are left behind !!!
Plump with @Jseyff And @Matt_Hougan In reactions👇 pic.twitter.com/ffn9penapn
– Kyle Chased / DD🐸 (@Kyle_Chasse) July 25, 2025
Regulation is gaining grip this year
According to Hougan, the clarity of the regulations started in January 2025 with new custody rules, tax guidelines and license regimes. Those steps reduce systemic risk and demand the way for banks and asset managers to roll out crypto services on their platforms.
Based on his analysis, the recent Genius Act-This month -opened doors on prime -broker -platforms. This means that trade agencies, cleaning up houses and research teams can invest billions in weeks and months. This type of build -out takes time, but it takes.
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Treasury companies appear like a wildcard
One fresh cyclical -style risk Hougan flags is the rise of treasury companies that offer short -term loans and products yield. If they grow too fast without the right checks, storage can still cause market sales. It is a new kind of danger that did not exist in earlier cycles.
Featured image of Unsplash, graph of TradingView
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