How will BTC perform as an investment in 2025? Although the stock fell a relatively modest 7.32% from the beginning to end of 2025, investors experienced wild up and down swings throughout the year. Here’s how much BTC gained or lost in each quarter of 2025.
What the Venezuela crisis means for BTC
2026 is off to a wild start. US special forces entered Venezuela, captured the country’s leader, Nicholas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, and flew them to New York to face charges.
How does this affect BTC? BTC trades in two ways: sometimes as a safe haven like gold, and sometimes as a technology stock that rates higher during times of market optimism and exuberance. In the weeks since the start of this year, BTC has acted as a safe haven, thanks to rising geopolitical tensions, exemplified by the US military action in Venezuela.
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From early 2026 to now (mid-January 2026), BTC has risen more than 8% and gold has risen about 5%. Why so? Much of the geopolitical uncertainty today is caused by actions or statements by the US government. As a result, investors are looking for assets that are – at least partially – independent of the influence of the US government.
Enter gold and BTC. They are both globally traded assets that are not structural controlled by the US – or any other country. Furthermore, both are considered alternative forms of money by many investors. In fact, gold and BTC are often clubbed together as hard assets; that is, assets whose value cannot easily be manipulated or inflated by governments, including the US.
Does this mean that the price of BTC will continue to rise this year as long as geopolitical uncertainty persists? It’s not that simple.
The fate of BTC in 2026 will depend on inflation and interest rates
While BTC – like gold – is rising due to geopolitical uncertainty, it is also (somewhat paradoxically) considered a risky asset. In other words, like stocks, it gains significantly in low interest rate regimes when the market is flooded with liquidity. Therefore, for BTC to rise substantially in 2026, inflation (especially in the US, the world’s largest capital market) would need to be soft and interest rates would need to remain low.
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US inflation data is currently encouraging, with the headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 coming in at 2.7% annualized. This is in line with expectations and within the comfort zone of the US Federal Reserve (the Fed), meaning the Fed may not be in a hurry to raise rates. This is positive news for BTC.
The chart below shows the CPI trajectory from 2021 to the last print for December 2025. As is clear from the chart, the CPI has remained relatively low – within the 2% to 3% range – for over a year, thanks to soft crude oil prices and efficiency gains from the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI).
Source: cnbc.com from January 13, 2026
Where BTC goes in 2026 will depend in no small part on the price of oil, the continued adoption of AI by major global companies, and the effect this will have on inflation.
Crypto price fluctuations are common
Cryptocurrencies, including BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL, BNB and others, are speculative and highly volatile assets that are subject to significant price fluctuations. Even stablecoins, which are ostensibly “safe,” can be risky if they are not sufficiently backed by real assets.
Investing in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies involves significant market, technological and regulatory risks. Only invest in crypto if it aligns with your broader investment goals, time horizon and risk profile, and always remain vigilant against crypto scams.
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