Bitcoin to $16 trillion? ARK Says BTC Could Swallow 70% of the Entire Crypto Market

ARK believes that by 2030, only two to three Layer 1 platforms will capture most of the market value for smart contracts.

ARK Invest estimated in its ‘Big Ideas 2026’ report that the market for smart contract networks and pure-play digital currencies could reach a total market value of $28 trillion by 2030. The company said these digital assets, which are used as a store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account on public blockchains, could grow at an annual growth rate of about 61% through the end of the decade.

ARK predicted that Bitcoin could make up around 70% of the total market, with the rest expected to be dominated by smart contract networks such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL).

Bitcoin leads ARK’s 2030 outlook

According to ARK’s forecast, BTC’s market cap could rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 63% in the coming years, from nearly $2 trillion to about $16 trillion by 2030.

The investment management company estimated that the market capitalization of smart contract platforms could grow by 54% annually to approximately $6 trillion by 2030, which is expected to be supported by annualized revenues of approximately $192 billion at an average absorption rate of 0.75%. ARK said two to three Layer 1 platforms could capture the majority of that market.

Meanwhile, U.S. Bitcoin ETFs and publicly traded companies held 12% of the total Bitcoin supply in 2025, up from 8.7% previously. The company found that ETF balances increased by 19.7% over the year, from approximately 1.12 million BTC to almost 1.3 million BTC.

Listed companies’ holdings of BTC also expanded, after rising 73% from approximately 598,000 BTC to approximately 1.09 million BTC.

ARK also noted that BTC’s risk-adjusted returns exceeded those of most other major cryptocurrencies and indexes through most of 2025. Bitcoin’s average annual Sharpe Ratio has surpassed that of ETH and SOL, and the average of the other nine components in the CoinDesk 10 Index since the last cycle low in November 2022, early 2024, and early 2025.

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It added that Bitcoin has become less volatile as it grows into a safe haven.

Only a few coins will survive?

Furthermore, Layer 1 networks were found to be evolving from revenue-generating platforms to monetary assets. Applying a fast-growing revenue multiple of 50x to Ethereum’s network revenue, ARK estimated that more than 90% of Ethereum’s market value is attributed to its role as a monetary asset. On the other hand, ARK stated that Solana generated $1.4 billion in revenue, meaning about 90% of its valuation is driven by network utility.

The company added that based on its research, only a few digital assets will retain monetary properties and serve as a liquid store of value.