Fears that Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) could be forced to sell Bitcoin if it is removed from the MSCI indexes are “plain wrong,” says Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise.
“I understand why bears want to embrace the MSTR ‘doom loop’ idea,” he said on December 3 comment customers. “It would indeed be very bad for the bitcoin market if MSTR had to sell its $60 billion worth of bitcoin all at once. But with no debt until 2027 and plenty of cash to cover interest payments for the foreseeable future, I just don’t see this happening.”
He noted that with Bitcoin priced at $92,000, trading at $92,900 at 11:52 a.m. EST, this is 24% above the average price at which Strategy acquired its stock, Hougan said.
“There are a lot of things to worry about in crypto,” he added. “Michael Saylor and Strategy selling bitcoin is not one of them.”
The concerns come because MSTR is in a slump. Data from Google Finance shows that MSTR has fallen by more than 23% in the past month, and by almost 50% in the past six months.
MSTR Award (Source: Google Finance)
MSCI and other index removals won’t have as big an impact, Hougan says
MSCI announced on October 10 that it is considering removing digital asset treasury (DAT) companies from its investable indexes, with a decision expected next month.
JPMorgan estimates that such a delisting would likely result in the sale of up to $2.8 billion of MSTR shares, and much more if other index providers follow suit, with approximately $9 billion of MSTR held by passive fund managers.
“I’m not convinced that removal would be a major problem for the stock,” Hougan said. “$2.8 billion is a lot of revenue, but my experience in watching index additions and deletions over the years is that the effect is usually smaller than you think and is priced in well in advance.”
When MSTR was added to the Nasdaq 100 Index last December, funds tracking the index had to buy $2.1 billion worth of MSTR, Hougan said, adding that the company’s stock price “barely moved.”
“Over the long term, MSTR’s value is based on how well it executes its strategy, not on whether index funds are forced to own it,” he argued.
Responding to fears of delisting from the MSCI indexes, Saylor said: “We are a publicly traded company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as productive capital. Index ranking does not define us.”
Response to MSCI Index Matter
Strategy is not a fund, not a trust, and not a holding company. We are a publicly traded company with a $500 million software business and a unique treasury strategy that uses Bitcoin as productive capital.
This year alone we have…
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) November 21, 2025
Math shows that strategy has no reason to sell Bitcoin
Hougan also said the simple math doesn’t support the idea of a doom loop for MSTR.
“MSTR has two relevant obligations on its debt: it must pay approximately $800 million per year in interest and it must convert or roll over specific debt instruments as they mature,” Hougan said. “Neither commitment is a near-term concern for Strategy.”
Interest payments are not a near-term concern because the company has $1.4 billion in cash, meaning it can easily make its dividend payments for a year and a half, he said.
Strategy’s first debt instrument doesn’t mature until February 2027, and the amount is only about $1 billion, which Hougan says is a “major change” for a company that currently has $60 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
Could insiders pressure MSTR to sell bitcoin if the stock continues to trade lower, Hougan asked.
“Doubtful,” he said. “Michael Saylor himself owns 42% of the voting stock, and you would be hard-pressed to find a human being with more conviction about the long-term value of bitcoin. He didn’t sell the last time MSTR stock traded at a discount, in 2022.”
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