Bitcoin price rises 2% as Fed rate cut looms

Bitcoin price rises 2% as Fed rate cut looms

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Bitcoin price rose 2% over the past 24 hours, trading at $91,603 at 2:40 a.m. EST, while trading volume rose 76% to $40.8 billion.

BTC trading above the $90,000 level comes as markets expect the Federal Reserve to implement a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 9-10.

Data from the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are pricing in an 87% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which would lower the target rate to 3.5%-3.75%.

Meanwhile, the BoJ is widely expected to raise rates at its December 18-19 policy meeting.

High volatility is expected around the announcements from both central banks as markets adjust their expectations for the future interest rate path.

As markets prepare for a volatile week, financier Anthony Scaramucci said the price of BTC could rise to $1 million, an increase of more than ten times from the current price.

Harvard University is well positioned for such a price increase, with Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan saying the institution expanded its BTC holdings from $117 million to $443 million in the third quarter.

When the university increased its allocation to gold from $102 million to $235 million over the same period, Hougan noted that it favored BTC by a 2:1 ratio.

With BTC up over 6% in the past week, can BTC continue to rise?

Bitcoin price poised for recovery above key resistances

Looking at the 3-day chart, BTC has been trading within a correction range since reaching a rounded top at $125,761. In recent weeks, BTC has consolidated between the $85,270 support area (0.786 Fib) and the $99,957 resistance area (0.5 Fib).

Technical indicators are showing the first signs of a potential bullish move as Bitcoin attempts to stabilize above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key long-term support level.

BTC recently recovered from the Fibonacci retracement of 0.786, a common deep retracement area in bull market corrections. Price has also reclaimed the short-term structure above $88,700, which is the level of the 200 SMA.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from oversold territory and is currently around 37, indicating that while sellers still have momentum, the bearish strength is fading. A rise towards the midpoint (50) would signal that buyers are regaining control.

However, the 50-day SMA remains above $109,700, indicating that the short-term trend is still under bearish pressure but improving.

BTC/USD Chart Analysis Source: TradingView

With the price of BTC showing the first signs of a momentum shift and the RSI slowly rising, a bullish short-term scenario could emerge over the next few candles.

If this momentum continues, Bitcoin price could rise towards the 0.5 Fib level ($99,900) as it targets the 0.382 Fib zone of $106,016.

On the other hand, if Bitcoin price is rejected at the $100,000 – $107,000 resistance zone, it could lead to continued sideways moves within the broader correction structure. In that case, BTC price may revisit the support at $85,270.

If the bears manage to overwhelm buyers, a deeper decline towards the support at $74,281 (1.0 Fib) could occur in a more extreme scenario.

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