Bitcoin Price Prediction: What’s next for BTC after a 7% weekly drop below $90,000?

Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase after failing to break above the mid-$90,000s. The recent price action looks like a pullback within a broader range rather than a confirmed trend reversal, but the rejection at key moving averages and supply zones has shifted the near-term risk balance towards further consolidation and possible downside testing before renewed progress.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily time frame, the asset has crossed from the $95,000 resistance band, which corresponds to the bottom of the 100-day moving average and is well below the declining 200-day moving average. The previous rising wedge that developed from the $82,000 demand region has now broken down, and the spot is trading around the former breakout and local support around $89,000-$90,000.

As long as the market remains below the 100-day moving average and fails to reclaim the broken wedge structure, the broader picture favors a range between the $82,000-$84,000 demand zone and the $95,000-$97,000 supply zone, with the risk of a deeper test towards the lower limit if rebounds continue to be sold.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

The 4-hour chart shows the breakdown of the ascending channel that took assets from around $84,000 to the recent high of $96,000. After losing channel support and the $90,000 intraday pivot, the price has found tentative support just above $88,000-$89,000, coinciding with the origin of the last impulsive leg higher.

Momentum on the 4-hour RSI has recovered from oversold territory but remains below previous highs, suggesting that so far there is only a corrective bounce within a short-term downward trend. A sustained recovery above $92,000 would open the door for a retest of $95,000, while failure to sustain $88,000-$89,000 would significantly increase the chances of a move towards the $82,000 daily demand area, or even lower.

Analysis in the chain

The adjusted SOPR (aSOPR) and the 30-day EMA have been on a downward trend for several months, from a clearly profitable area above 1.03-1.04 to below the neutral band around 1.00. This indicates that realized gains on output issued have been steadily compressed and an increasing proportion of coins are being sold near breakeven, with periodic periods of realized losses when the aSOPR falls below 1.

Structurally, such a decline in realized profitability usually signals a late-cyclical or post-euphoric phase in which speculative excesses are unwound and weaker hands are gradually disappearing.

If the aSOPR stabilizes around 1, while price provides longer-term support, this would indicate a healthier, more balanced market that flushes out marginal sellers without broad capitulation; in contrast, a sustained decline in the 30-day exponential moving average of the aSOPR below 1 would indicate a deeper profit-taking and loss-realization regime, consistent with a more extensive correction phase.