Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Resistance Remains as BTC Prepares for an ATH Peak

Bitcoin remains in a neutral to bullish consolidation phase, fluctuating between its 100- and 200-day moving averages. The $116K barrier is now the key resistance for continuation, while the $109K region defines the bullish invalidation threshold.

Until one of these levels is decisively breached, the market will likely fluctuate within the current range, building liquidity ahead of the next impulsive move.

Technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily time frame, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly from the $109,000 support area, in line with the 200-day MA, reclaiming several key short-term levels. The recent rebound has taken the price directly into the $114,000 – $116,000 resistance zone, which coincides with the 100-day moving average.

This area represents a crucial inflection point: a sustained close above $116,000 would confirm a structural shift and likely encourage continuation toward the $120,000-$122,000 supply zone. However, the rejection candle forming around the 100-day MA highlights continued selling pressure from short-term holders.

As long as assets remain trapped between the 100- and 200-day MAs, Bitcoin is expected to extend the consolidation phase and build energy for the next major trend expansion. The region between $109,000 and $110,000 remains the main line of defense for bulls.

The 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, BTC recently broke above a symmetrical triangle and showed renewed bullish momentum before pulling back slightly from resistance. The breakout pushed the price into the supply zone between $114,000 and $116,000, where the first signs of rejection are visible.

If the price manages to stabilize above the upper limit of the triangle (around $112,000 – $113,000), the structure would remain constructive, allowing continuation towards the $118,000 – $120,000 zone. On the other hand, a breakdown below $111,000 would signal a loss of near-term momentum, re-exposing the $108,000 demand area.

This setup reflects the compression in volatility near key levels, suggesting that a targeted breakout, either reclaiming $116,000 or dipping below $111,000, will determine Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

Sentiment analysis

By Shayan

The Futures Average Order Size metric shows a notable shift in the dynamics of market participation in recent weeks. During the recent recovery from the $108,000 to $109,000 demand zone, the market has seen a decline in order activity for large whales (represented by the fading green clusters) and a corresponding increase in smaller, retail-driven order sizes (highlighted in red).

This transition generally suggests that institutional traders are reducing leverage exposure and allowing retail participation to dominate short-term market movements, which is common during medium-term consolidations or in the later phases of local recovery.

Historically, phases of heavy retail dominance often coincided with short-term distribution or price action within certain ranges, while major players waited to re-accumulate liquidity at lower levels. Conversely, periods of sharp increases in large whale orders, such as seen in late 2024 and early 2025, have preceded large directional rallies driven by institutional positioning.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is hovering around $114,000 along with the large order size contraction, indicating neutral to cautious sentiment among professional traders. If another influx of large orders appears near the $109,000 to $110,000 support, it would signal renewed institutional accumulation and could strengthen the bullish continuation scenario towards $120,000 to $125,000.

Until then, the market structure suggests Bitcoin is in a short-term equilibrium phase, where retail-driven volatility defines the range while institutional activity remains subdued, awaiting confirmation of key technical levels.