Bitcoin -Price analysis: Is BTC set to break down under $ 100k?

Bitcoin slipped under various important support levels after having set a new all time earlier this month. Given the current market setting, the short -term prospects indicate a greater chance of further downward disadvantage.

By Shayan

The daily graph

In the daily period of time, the market was steadily lower and broke under the large falling channel, the $ 110k support area and the 100-day advancing average that was in line with it.

Losing these critical levels increases the chance of a deeper decline, with the following downward goals that are around $ 104k real value gap or even the 200-day advancing average near the psychological $ 100k zone.

Since the RSI also holds below 50, Momentum is clearly in favor of the bears, making the most likely result further.

The 4-hour graph

On the 4-hour graph, the market is in a clear downward trend, so that consistent lower highlights and lows are formed in a tight falling channel. The supports of $ 117k and $ 110K are both decisive and tested, pointing to the real value of around $ 104k and the next likely target.

The RSI is under 50 and reinforces bearish Momentum, while the price comes closer to the golden zone of Fibonacci. The lower limit of this zone, at the retracement level of 78.6%, is in line with the $ 104k real value gap, making it a strong target and potential rebound area. How the market responds to this level will be crucial when forming the direction of the coming weeks.

Onchain -analysis

Changes

This graph illustrates Bitcoin’s Exchange reserves and its price. The purple line shows the reserves that are kept over all stock markets, while the white line follows the USD price of Bitcoin. What is striking is the continuing decline in exchange reserves since the beginning of 2024, which continued to this day.

This means that fewer units are held on exchanges, a sign that investors and institutions withdraw their BTC in cold storage instead of keeping them ready for sale. In other words, the circulating offer that is available for immediate trade is shrinking.

This trend is very important from a demand and supply perspective. As the exchange reserves fall, the delivery of Bitcoin that can be sold quickly on the market becomes tighter.

If the demand is steadily or increases, this imbalance supports higher prices in the long term, as we have seen with Bitcoin that pushes to new all-time highlights. However, price corrections in the short term such as the recent pullback are still possible when the question weakens or when macro-economic conditions shift.