Bitcoin Price Analysis: First Bearish Signals Appear as BTC Drops $20,000 from ATH

Bitcoin has continued its corrective action this week, falling from record levels and testing key trendline and support levels. While the broader macro structure remains bullish, the short-term outlook points to consolidation or even a deeper downtrend if buyer momentum does not kick in soon.

Technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

On the daily time frame, BTC has broken below the 100-day moving average, located around $115,000, but is currently right on the lower trendline of the major ascending channel and the critical 200-day moving average. This area also ties into a previous order block and acts as important support.

However, the RSI remains below 40, reflecting a clear loss of bullish momentum, and unless the price recovers quickly, this trendline could break, opening the door to levels below the key $100,000 zone, which could lead to an overall bearish shift in the market trend.

The 4-hour chart

Zooming in, it is clear that BTC has formed a small base around $105K after the breakup of the $115K and $109K levels. The asset is struggling to reclaim the $108,000-$109,000 zone, which has now turned into resistance. Moreover, the RSI is bouncing slightly, but still does not have strong momentum and is hovering around 38.

The overall structure still favors the bears in the near term unless a strong retracement of $110,000 followed by higher lows occurs. Otherwise, sellers could push BTC to the $100K region or even lower.

Sentiment analysis

Futures average order size

Futures order size data shows a dramatic shift from whale activity to smaller, retail-driven positions in recent weeks. When the price started to correct in September, the number of orders from large whales began to disappear, almost entirely replaced by smaller retail transactions.

This suggests that the smart money has moved away from leveraged positions, while retail traders continue to engage. This often happens during trend exhaustion phases and the final stages of bull markets, which is a very worrying development.

It reinforces the idea that the recent dip is not due to strong accumulation, which increases the risk of further downturn unless new institutional demand emerges.