Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Trying to Reverse Bearish Mood, But Is Still $82K Left on the Table?

Bitcoin continues to trade within a decisive corrective structure, pressing against a key resistance block at $91,000 – $93,000 after a sharp rebound. Despite the recent recovery, the broader trend remains pointed downward, and the daily chart suggests that BTC is approaching a confluence area where the next major directional move will likely be determined.

Bitcoin technical analysis

By Shayan

The daily chart

Bitcoin remains within a clearly defined descending channel, with the price currently testing the mid-range of this structure. The recent recovery out of the demand zone of $80,000 to $83,000 marked the most aggressive buybacks in the past month, but the move has stalled right at the lower end of the green supply block, around $90,000 to $93,000.

The 100- and 200-day moving averages continue to slope downward, above the market and acting as dynamic resistance. As long as the price remains below these MAs, the macro trend is bearish. The first major unwinding of the bearish order flow would only occur if the $103,000 – $106,000 zone is fully reclaimed, which is at the intersection of the larger gold supply area and the previous distribution structure.

For now, Bitcoin is struggling to break out of the downtrend line. Any advances in the $91,000 to $93,000 area have shown weakening momentum, suggesting the market is not yet ready for a sustained breakout.

The 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, the asset has reached a critical resistance range, marked by the bearish order block range at $92K and the multi-week descending trendline. If current resistance holds, a return to $86,000 – $88,000 becomes likely, and deeper liquidity is still in the macro demand zone of $80,000 – $83,000, which remains the strongest support on the chart.

Conversely, a daily close above the $93K level would open the way to the $102K-$106K inefficiency zone, where the next major reaction is expected. The market is currently at a crucial decision point, and the coming weeks will determine whether this upswing evolves into a full retracement or fades into a continuation of the broader downtrend.

Analysis in the chain

By Shayan

While technical indicators highlight the $92,000 level as the immediate hurdle, on-chain data reveals a formidable “second layer” of resistance slightly higher up, driven by the average cost basis of specific market participants.

The Realized Price by UTXO Age Bands metric is essential for identifying support and resistance, as the realized price of a specific cohort often acts as a psychological barrier. When the spot price trades below these levels, these holders are in a state of unrealized losses. When prices then return to their average cost basis, these investors often aim to exit the market at break-even levels, creating significant pressure on the sell side.

Currently, the graph highlights a critical convergence of two different cohorts:

The 1 week to 1 month cohort (green line): represents recent “fomo” buyers or those who took the falling knife.

The six to twelve month cohort (orange line): represents mid-term holders who joined earlier this year.

The realized prices of both cohorts have converged exactly in the range of $96,000 – $97,000.

This confluence serves as a huge resistance block. Even if Bitcoin manages to overcome the technical resistance at $92,000, the rally is likely to exhaust near $96,000 – $97,000 as these key cohorts look to cut losses and exit the market.

The overlap of these two age categories adds to the resistance because it combines the panic of short-term traders with the capitulation of medium-term investors. A decisive close above $97,000 is needed to signal that the market has absorbed this selling pressure and is ready for higher valuations.