Bitcoin Price Analysis: Big Pullback or Explosive BTC Breakout Next?

Bitcoin is moving higher into a heavy pocket of resistance, while spot supply on exchanges continues to shrink. Structurally, this is a bullish background, but technically the price is pushing right into an area where profit-taking is expected. Therefore, either the price will break and remain above this ceiling, or there would be a corrective pullback to the mid-range.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC has pushed back towards the $95K resistance band, which is in line with the 100-day moving average. This is the same zone that rejected assets in the previous upswings, so for now it still acts as a key supply area within the broader downtrend from the highs.

The daily RSI has also increased, but no longer in panic extremes, indicating strong short-term momentum, but still within a larger corrective structure. As long as BTC is trading below the 100-day moving average and the $95k resistance block, the move is best treated as a countertrend rally, and not a confirmed new uptrend.

But if the level were to break higher, a rally towards the $106K zone and nearby 200-day moving average would be expected, which could trigger the start of a new, longer bull run.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

On the 4-hour chart, price broke out of the rising structure and is now consolidating at the very top of the pattern and at resistance on the higher time frame. Momentum is clearly waning: the candles are getting smaller and the RSI has started to roll over overbought after a bearish divergence, indicating a local distribution near the highs.

If buyers fail to defend the breakout area around $93,000 – $94,000, a pullback to the pattern’s lower trendline and the $90,000 region would be likely. Conversely, if BTC can hold above $93,000 – $94,000 and build a base there, a new push towards the psychological level of $98,000 – $100,000 becomes realistic. Still, buyers need quick follow-up, otherwise the outbreak risks becoming a fake outbreak.

Analysis in the chain

The currency reserve data continues to decline, while the price is near the top of the local range. That means less BTC is sitting on exchanges and more BTC is in cold storage or strong hands, which is usually a constructive, low-supply backdrop.

This does not prevent short-term corrections when price encounters technical resistance, but does suggest that deeper dips in the $80,000 – $90,000 range are more likely to be bought than a full distribution top. Unless there is a sharp spike in BTC that feeds back into the exchanges, the medium-term picture is still leaning toward bullish even if the price experiences a short-term downside that will restore momentum.