Bitcoin Holders Realize Losses as Earnings Dynamics Turn Negative: CryptoQuant

What are the implications for cycle development?

For the first time in more than two years, Bitcoin holders are realizing losses on their investment in the leading digital asset. This change in dynamics comes as BTC and the broader crypto market are believed to be on the brink of a bear cycle.

According to a weekly CryptoQuant reportBitcoin holders have not seen this shift since October 2023. The negative turn in earnings dynamics has dominated the past 30 days.

Bitcoin sees change in profit dynamics

CryptoQuant said that since December 23, Bitcoin holders have realized losses amounting to 69,000 BTC. This marks the first time network participants have realized net losses in a 30-day period since October 2023.

The Bitcoin network has witnessed a decline in realized profits since March 2024. The decline came as prices lost momentum as the bull phase came to an end. Analysts found similarities between current market dynamics and the 2021-2022 bull cycle. After realized net profits peaked in January 2021, they began to decline. February and November 2021 saw a series of lower local highs, followed by net losses. Notably, BTC holders at the time realized lower net profits at higher prices.

Following a similar trend, realized net profits peaked in January 2024. Since then, there have been a series of lower peaks in December 2024, July and October 2025. Currently, the profit margin has turned negative and holders are realizing net losses.

Signs of an early bear market

Bitcoin’s net realized gains have fallen from 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 to 2.5 million BTC currently, a level not seen since March 2024. Analysts say this level is similar to that of March 2022, during the early stages of the last bear market.

Interestingly, the current net realized losses also follow patterns similar to the trends of March 2022. At that time, the bear market was already underway and Bitcoin’s price had lost its momentum. Given investor sentiment and speculation surrounding the market, this dynamic confirms that the bear market has indeed begun.

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Analysts have confirmed that most on-chain metrics and earnings dynamics are consistent with early bear market conditions. Last week, CryptoPotato reported that Bitcoin demand conditions had improved; However, the improvement did not cause significant changes. There are no notable shifts in demand from exchange-traded funds or spot indicators. Instead, demand has declined over the past thirty days.