According to Galaxy’s head of research Alex Thorn, crypto market leader Bitcoin (BTC) has not exceeded the $100,000 mark this year if inflation is taken into account.
In a December 23 afterThorn said the crypto never rose above the six-figure mark when BTC’s price is adjusted for inflation using 2020 dollars.
“If you can believe it, it was actually $99,848 in 2020 dollars,” he said.
The researcher added that the adjusted price was responsible for the decline in purchasing power since 2020. More specifically, he cited the consumer price index (CPI), which has fallen incrementally with each inflation print from 2020 to date.
The CPI is used to measure inflation through the prices of a basket of goods and services. It is calculated by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to track any changes in consumer spending habits.
In November, the agency reported that the CPI has risen by 2.7% over the past twelve months, not seasonally adjusted, which has reduced the purchasing power of the US dollar. Overall, the dollar has lost 20% of its value since 2020.
Current situation:
1. US GDP growth is at its strongest pace since 2023
2. CPI inflation unexpectedly fell to 2.7% last month
3. Trump appoints a new Fed chairman who will cut interest rates
4. Oil prices have fallen to their lowest level since 2021
5. Stock ETFs have a…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) December 23, 2025
Bitcoin may not experience a major crash in the first quarter of 2026
Thorn’s message comes after BTC rose to an all-time high of $126,198.07 on October 6, 2023. Since then, it has fallen more than 31% to trade at $87,101.47 as of 1:30 a.m. EST, data from CoinMarketCap shows.
BTC price (Source: CoinMarketCap)
Zooming out on the annual chart shows that the crypto king’s price has also fallen by more than 7% over the past twelve months.
Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano commented on BTC’s decline on Tuesday interview with CNBC.
The entrepreneur addressed the short-term disappointment of Bitcoin holders over the crypto not reaching $250K this year, despite such predictions being made by several experts in 2025.
“We haven’t hit the top that I think people expected at the end of the third quarter or the beginning of the fourth quarter, but we also haven’t seen the big 80% pullback that people normally expect,” he said.
“We have to remember that Bitcoin is up 100% in two years. In three years it’s up almost 300%. It’s just gotten bigger,” Pompliano added.
Pompliano also noted that Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped significantly compared to previous years. That’s why he said “it would be very surprising” if there was a “70% or 80% decline” in the first quarter of 2026.
VanEck believes Bitcoin will be a “top performer” in 2026
While BTC may not have recovered in 2025 as the market expected, trailing both gold and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 stock index, asset manager VanEck believes the crypto can make a strong comeback next year.
“Bitcoin is trailing the Nasdaq 100 Index by about 50% this year, and that disruption sets it up to be a top performer in 2026,” David Schassler, the asset manager’s head of multi-asset solutions, said in VanEck’s 2026 prospects.
This bullish forecast is based on the belief that the increasing devaluation of fiat currencies could lead to a return of liquidity to the crypto market, to which BTC has historically reacted “sharply.”
The analyst added that VanEck has ‘bought’ Bitcoin while the price is low.
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