Price promotion alone often leaves room for discussion, but data on the chain is beginning to provide clearer guidance. Notably, CryptoQuant’s analysis shows that Bitcoin’s internal market structure is shifting in a way that better reflects early-stage bear market conditions.
BCMI falls below equilibrium
The important signal of the bear market is from the Bitcoin combined market indexor BCMI, a composite indicator that combines price behavior with on-chain momentum. According to Woo Minkyu, a verified analyst on the CryptoQuant platform, Bitcoin’s BCMI returned to the 0.5 level in October. This was initially interpreted as a cooling phase and not as a final cycle top. At the time, Bitcoin was believed to be consolidating after a prolonged rally.
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However, this view has been weakened by the deterioration of market conditions. Notably, Bitcoin’s price action has declined significantly since late October, and the BCMI has fallen along with the price. This concerted decline suggests that the market has reset not only through time, but also through appreciation and participation.
As shown in the chart below, the BCMI has now fallen below its equilibrium zone, and this is known to be a development that coincides with transitions to bearish phases, where rallies are typically capped and downside risks increase.
A closer look at previous Bitcoin cycles adds more context to the current setup. In both 2019 and 2023, meaningful cycle bottoms only emerged after the BCMI compressed to the 0.25 to 0.35 range. These levels reflected deep sentiment compression, faded positioning and a structural reset of the market.
At current measurements, Bitcoin’s combined market index is less than 0.4. This value is below equilibrium, but still well above a soil zone. This opens up the possibility of the market transitioning into a bear phase and not just experiencing a pullback.
According to the analyst, a more sustainable bottom can only form if history repeats itself and the BCMI revisits 2019-2023 levels.
Weak sentiment adds to bear market evidence
Market sentiment also supports the idea that Bitcoin is entering deeper into a bearish phase. Optimism has been in short supply in recent weeks, with traders showing little confidence that the price has found a sustainable bottom. Crypto Fear and Greed Index from CoinMarketCap is currently posting a lecture of 28, which puts sentiment firmly in the fear zone.
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This poor sentiment is confirmed by industry commentary. Changpeng Zhao, for example recently noted that many investors I only wish they had bought Bitcoin early when prices were already at an all-time high. In practice, these early accumulations occurred during periods like the current one, when fear, uncertainty, and doubt dominate market psychology.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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