Bitcoin (BTC) can rise to $ 170k in Q4: report

Various factors support Bitcoin’s four -year bicycle framework, which reinforces the chance of a peak of Q4.

With the beginning of October, the feelings about Bitcoin seem to improve. Interestingly, the historical price behavior of Bitcoin continues to show patterns that are consistent with the so-called “four-year cycle”, according to analysis of the Defi report.

The platform revealed that it is convinced that BTC will again peak in Q4.

Four -year cycle strikes again

Current cycle data indicate that the market is at a “late stage” of expansion. The Defi report measured From Bitcoin’s prize tray in November 2022, and discovered that 1,044 days have elapsed, which is comparable to the 1,063-day expansion of 2021 and the 1,065-day cycle of 2017.

Realized profits for BTC investors have reached $ 857 billion, which is 65% higher than in the 2021 cycle, while it is normalized on market capitalization, profit creation is closely in line with earlier cycles.

In the meantime, Muntdagen has destroyed a benchmark for how long coins are held before expenditure, the 2021 cycle has already exceeded 15%, which indicates active profit maker. Long -term holders Delivery Too mirrored behavior from the past when a distribution phase took place in Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, followed by a rebound, which means that coins have moved to new money that entered the market.

To surpass that, the market continued to experience institutional participation and market maturation, since Bitcoin -Dominance has not yet fallen to the 40% levels that are seen in earlier cycles.

Realized price and MVRV-Z-score

Technical indicators also add context to these trends. The advancing average of 200 weeks is currently at $ 53.1k. It has previously indicated soils and earlier cycle heights, which indicates reducing returns for upward movements this year. Realized price, a proxy for a cost -basis, is $ 53.8k, which also validated this trend.

Maybe you also like it:

The MVRV-Z-score is 2.28, above comparable points in 2021. Previous authorities have shown that a movement for a score of 3 could correspond to Bitcoin that reaches $ 160k $ 170k. This means that the crypto -active has a considerable potential benefit if the cycle continues.

Although no law requires that Bitcoin will follow the four-year cycle, the report stated that the convergence of behavioral, mechanical and macro-economic factors suggests that a peak of Q4 is likely. Narrative anchoring, liquidity lines, halving mechanics, innovation outbursts and volatility expectations together support this scenario, making the four-year cycle a sustainable framework.