Bitcoin (BTC) fell to a low of $93,029 on Sunday, down 25% from its all-time high in October. It started the year at $93,507.
It has since risen again to around $94,209, CoinGecko facts shows.
This year was set to be a strong one for the crypto markets after US President Donald Trump was inaugurated on January 20 and formed the most pro-crypto government yet, which has delivered on most of his promises.
The regulatory momentum under the Trump administration has been accompanied by an explosion in corporate adoption of Bitcoin treasuries and increased inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
However, Trump’s war on tariffs and the US government shutdown — the latter of which ended Thursday after a record 43 days — have contributed to multiple double-digit Bitcoin price drops throughout the year.
Bitcoin whales have also slowed price increases
Another major catalyst behind Bitcoin’s price decline is the OG Bitcoiners and whales who have sold off parts of their holdings, compressing profits even in light of the positive developments in the sector.
However, Glassnode analysts said last week that the Bitcoin “OG Whales Dumping” story is not as strong as it is made out to be, explaining that it is “normal bull market behavior,” especially during the late stages of bull runs.
“This steady increase reflects increasing distribution pressure from older investor cohorts – a pattern typical of late-cycle profit-taking, rather than a sudden exodus of whales.”
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Bitcoin is not alone: Ether (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have fallen 7.95% And 28.3% respectively from early 2025, while most altcoins have been hit even harder.
The four-year cycle thesis is still not in effect, says analyst
Industry analysts are also speculating whether the four-year cycle thesis remains valid, despite the crypto markets having much more institutional and regulatory support compared to previous market cycles.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, is one of the few analysts who believe that Bitcoin will boom in 2026 due to the ‘debasement trade’ thesis playing out, while the broader markets will benefit from greater stablecoin adoption, tokenization and decentralized finance.
“I think the underlying fundamentals are just so sound,” Hougan said last Wednesday.
“I just think they’re too big to keep in. So I think 2026 will be a good year.”
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