Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom: When and How Low Will BTC Go?

BTC was rejected again yesterday.

However, it all went terribly wrong in the days that followed, especially after the October 10 crash, when over-indebted traders faced more than $19 billion in liquidations. Nothing was the same after that disaster, which is still cited as the beginning of the end.

The cryptocurrency has since fallen more than 30% and is now struggling below $90,000, which has become an insurmountable resistance. Analysts are overwhelmingly in agreement that the bear market has actually begun, and the question now is when BTC will bottom.

364 days from the top?

Obviously, every analyst has a different theory on this, including Doctor Profit, who said that BTC will fall to somewhere around $40,000 in the third quarter of 2026. However, in this article we will focus on Ali Martinez’s opinion, which, to be honest, is not that different.

He based his analysis on the cycle top and bottom theory. As previously reported, bitcoin tends to reach a cycle top exactly 1,064 days after the previous low, which was the case between the January 2015 bull market and December 2017, and between December 2018 and the November 2021 rally. Interestingly, the early October 2025 ATH also occurred after 1,064 days.

That’s why Martinez accepted that the bear market had begun on that historical date and set the stage for the subsequent long-term correction. He noted that these periods last 364 days (or almost a full year) and that the potential bottom should be around October 2026.

How Low Will BTC Go?

Martinez continued with the same history lesson, claiming that BTC fell 84% during the 2017-2018 bear market and 77% during the 2021-2022 bear market. If we average that number at around 80%, the cryptocurrency should fall to around $37,500 at the next market bottom.

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While this indeed sounds scary at this point, it’s worth noting that this projection is based on the popular theory of the four-year cycle. However, many other analysts have argued in recent months that BTC has pulled out and is operating under different rules, given the institutional rise, ETF products, DATs, and government support.