Bitcoin Aims to Recover from $96,000-$99,000 as Indices Signal a Reversal

The current fair value is around $99,000, which represents a potential recovery target in the $96,000-$99,000 zone if sentiment and liquidity improve.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $87,000 on November 25, with on-chain and derivatives indices suggesting that the month-long bearish phase could be approaching a major turning point.

Analysts now expect a potential recovery period between $96,000 and $99,000, with weak investors exiting the market and liquidity, rather than stories, starting to drive the next big move.

Indices indicate bear fatigue as the price lags behind fair value

On-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr. reported on Tuesday that the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index has been submitted in negative territory since November 11, indicating continued selling pressure.

However, a near-term turnaround is now underway, with the metric improving from a deeply negative -43% to around -20%. According to the analyst, this indicates a clear decline in bearish momentum.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Futures Flow Index is still stuck in a bearish zone around 41, which is still below the 45-55 band that Adler associates with a more neutral or bullish backdrop. He said upside momentum is unlikely until that level is reached.

Furthermore, the current fair value line is around $99,000 and there is a visible gap of $11,000 to be found, giving a recovery target between $96,000 and $99,000 if sentiment improves.

Market watcher Daan Crypto Trades also offered evidence that pressure may indeed be easing, noting that the Coinbase premium, which has been deeply negative for weeks, moved back to neutral last weekend, after heavy selling hit a local low last Friday.

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Nevertheless, the short-term structure remains vulnerable, with Titan or Crypto identify $88,700 as the bulls need to claw back from the first level. Meanwhile, analyst Ed_NL says marked a red box resistance zone near $93,500 that could either limit a three-legged bounce before new lows or set the stage for a fifth wave higher as buyers regain control.

Recent price movement

Looking at the market, Bitcoin was up slightly at the time of writing, up modestly by 1% in the past 24 hours. However, for all other periods, interest rates remain in the red, with a decline of almost 5% over seven days and 18% over two weeks.

Moreover, it has lost 23% of its value in the past month and is currently about 30% below its all-time high of over $126,000 reached in October.

The recent downturn was marked by a clear ‘institutional redistribution’, with the largest whale cohorts, particularly those holding between 1,000 and 10,000+ BTC, being consistent net sellers, taking profits and creating a persistent headwind for any significant rally.

At the same time, data from Santiment shows that the number of wallets holding 100 BTC or more increased by 0.47% since November 11, adding 91 new wallets to this level. This shows that there is accumulation, but mainly in the category of medium-sized whales of 10 to 1,000 BTC holders, and not in the very largest ones.