Thursday Night Football in Week 12 of the NFL season is an AFC matchup between the Buffalo Bills (7-3) and Houston Texans (5-5). Both teams could really use a win: Buffalo remains in AFC East contention and Houston remains in the wild-card picture.
Let’s get into my Bills vs. Texans predictions dive.
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Odds
Moneyline: Bills -290 / Texans +235
Distribution: Bills -6 (-110) / Texans +6 (-110)
Total: More than 43.5 (-110) / Less than 43.5 (-110)
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Best Bet #1: Texans +6 (-110)
There’s no denying that Buffalo is the better team. That said, Houston plays at home and has an incredible defense. Six points can go a long way, especially when games are low-scoring – which is generally the case when the Texans are involved. They are able to turn it into a defensive battle and make it a one-possession game, or even win outright. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team is No. 1 in the entire league in total defense (258.1 yards per play allowed), No. 1 in scoring (16.3 points per play allowed), No. 3 in passing (171.0 yards) and No. 3 in rushing (87.1 yards). It also ranks at number 5 with 16 takeaways.
On the other side of the ball, Houston quarterback CJ Stroud is still sidelined with a concussion. However, Davis Mills is a more than capable backup with plenty of experience. Mills was solid in four appearances (three starts) during the 2025 season, completing 60.0 percent of his attempts with three touchdowns and one interception. Meanwhile, Buffalo has lost two of its last three road outings, including to Atlanta by 10 points and to Miami by 17 points. Those are terrible results considering the quality – or lack thereof – of the opposition. Expect the Texans to be competitive from start to finish on TNF.
Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans Best Player Prop Bet: Woody Marks Over 57.5 rushing yards (-120)
As good as Houston’s defense is, perhaps the best way to combat Josh Allen and the Bills is to keep their offense on the sidelines for as long as possible. That means the Texans have to try to establish the running game and work the clock. Either way, it’s the way to maneuver against Buffalo’s defense. The Bills stink against the run. They are giving up 153.0 yards per game on the ground (second most in the league) and allowing 5.4 yards per attempt (also second most).
Marks, a rookie out of USC, has gained at least 62 yards in three of the last seven games and two of the last four. In what is an extremely favorable match, Marks should be in line for his best performance of the season.
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