The Buffalo Bills travel to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars JacksonvilleFlorida, on Sunday, January 11, kicking off at 1:00 PM ET on CBS.
Below, we break down the spread, moneyline, and total using PFF’s market data, compare the two starting quarterbacks using steady efficiency metrics, and highlight the team-level advantages that could impact this game.
This preview also dives into notable injuries, trench mismatches and unit-level numbers that matter most on Sunday, with all data backed by PFF Premium Stats and betting odds.
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Team stats
| Bills | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Power Rank: General | 3rd | 8th |
| Power Rank: Defense | 13th | 4th |
| Power Rank: Offense | 3rd | 12th |
| Played SOS | 29th | 24th |
| Avg. offensive snaps | 67.1 | 69.2 |
| % Run plays | 44.6% | 39.6% |
| % Pass plays | 55.4% | 60.4% |
| EPA per run | 0.00 | -0.09 |
| EPA per pass | 0.20 | 0.06 |
QB comparison
| Bills | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | J. Allen | T. Lawrence |
| PFF class | 87.4 | 84.7 |
| Passer-by assessment Clean | 114.3 | 101.9 |
| Passer-by assessment under pressure | 71.0 | 66.4 |
| Big Throw% | 3.93% | 4.22% |
| Revenue worthy game % | 2.39% | 3.05% |
| Assets | 7.0 | 4.5 |
| Power class | 1st | 8th |
Main injuries: Bills
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Figure | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Oliver | BY | Leg | AND | 87.3 | 84th |
| J. Bosa | ED | Leg | Q | 79.3 | 19th |
| D Jones | BY | Leg | Q | 75.5 | 37th |
| J Poyer | S | Leg | Q | 67.7 | 81st |
| T Johnson | HB | Leg | Q | 64.9 | 47th |
| M. Hairston | CB | Leg | OUT | 64.3 | 74th |
| D. Strong | CB | Head | AND | 62.9 | 141st |
Key Injuries: Jaguars
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Figure | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Van Lanen | T | Leg | Q | 79.3 | 24th |
| J Lewis | CB | Leg | AND | 67.2 | 47th |
| T. Hunter | WR | Leg | AND | 62.2 | 91st |
| P. Mekari | G | Torso | Q | 52.1 | 105th |
| J. Kiser | L.B | Other | AND | 49.7 | 185th |
Betting Insights: Spread
| Spread | Bills | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| PFF projection | -1.2 | +1.2 |
| Implied coverage probability | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Break even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | -2.6% | -2.1% |
| $$$% | 48% | 52% |
| To stake% | 38% | 62% |
Betting Insights: Moneyline
| Moneyline | Bills | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -120 | +100 |
| PFF projection | -102 | +103 |
| Implied probability of winning | 50.6% | 49.3% |
| Break even | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| Value | -3.9% | -0.6% |
| $$$% | 58% | 42% |
| To stake% | 57% | 43% |
Betting Insights: Total
| Total | Below | About |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 51.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110) |
| PFF projection | 50.7 | 50.7 |
| Implied coverage probability | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| Break even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | 5.2% | -10.0% |
| $$$% | 39% | 61% |
| To stake% | 40% | 60% |
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