A doubleheader on Monday Night Football in Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season kicks off with a showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons. Buffalo hopes to bounce back from its first loss and improve to 5-1. Atlanta sits at 2-2 and has enjoyed 14 full days off after a bye in Week 5.
Let’s get into my Bills vs. Falcons predictions dive.
Odds between Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons
Moneyline: Bills -205 / Falcons +170
Spread: banknotes -4.5 (-108) / falcons +4.5 (-112)
Total: Over 49.5 (-118) / Under 49.5 (-102)
Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons Best Bet #1: Over 49.5 (-118)
Don’t let the Falcons’ stellar defensive numbers fool you. The quarterbacks they have faced in the last three games are JJ McCarthy (Vikings), Bryce Young (Panthers) and Marcus Mariota (Commanders) in the last three games. Now they run into Josh Allen, arguably the best quarterback and all-around player in the NFL. Buffalo’s offense can bend any defense… and when Atlanta’s defense bends, it usually breaks. The Falcons are No. 25 in the NFL in red zone defense, yielding a touchdown on 66.7 percent of opponent possessions inside the 20-yard line. Playing in a dome (with a retractable roof) will only help both offenses, especially compared to the unpredictable conditions of, say, Orchard Park in Buffalo this time of year.
On the other side of the ball, this is a favorable matchup for Atlanta’s offense. The Falcons are No. 6 in the league wide in rushing (136.5 yards per game) and the Bills are No. 28 in run defense (145.6 yards per game) while also being third-last in yards per rush attempt allowed (5.6). Atlanta was held in check by Tampa Bay in the season opener, but has since racked up 218, 131 and 128 rushing yards. Every QB benefits from a capable offense, especially one in the very early stages of their professional career. If Robinson and Tyler Allgeier can open things up for Michael Penix Jr., the entire Falcons offense will be a reality. Expect plenty of points.
Buffalo Bills vs. Atlanta Falcons Best Player Prop Bet: Bijan Robinson Over 74.5 rushing yards (-114)
It doesn’t take a genius to decipher when the Falcons are or aren’t successful. In two wins, Robinson has rushed 39 times for 218 yards; in two losses he has carried 25 times for just 96 yards. This isn’t rocket science, folks. When Atlanta gives the ball to its best player, good things happen. Especially against arguably the best team in the entire league, there is only one way the Falcons win: by running the football – and doing so specifically with Robinson.
The Falcons were No. 6 in the NFL in run-play percentage heading into Week 6 and should likely be in the top five in that department by the time this game ends. Expect a heavy workload for Robinson on Monday evening, which he will have to distribute over sufficient yards.
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