The Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs kicks off Saturday afternoon with an AFC showdown between the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. Buffalo is playing its second straight game after winning in Jacksonville last Sunday. Denver earned a first-round bye as the No. 1 seed in the conference after winning the AFC West.
Let’s get into my Bills vs. Broncos predictions dive.
Odds between Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos
Moneyline: Bills +100 / Broncos -120
Spread: Notes +1.5 (-110) / Broncos -1.5 (-118)
Total: Over 46.5 (-105) / Under 46.5 (-115)
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos Best Bet No. 1: Under 46.5 (-115)
I don’t have much confidence in either party. Buffalo is in trouble, while Denver has no playoff experience. Instead, the bottom end looks more attractive, as neither offense inspires much confidence. Josh Allen is clearly a force under center, but the Bills lost wide receiver Gabe Davis to a torn ACL last weekend and their passing corps was already unspectacular. Now they face a Broncos defense that ranked No. 2 overall in the NFL in the regular season, No. 3 in scoring, No. 7 against the pass, No. 2 in yards per pass attempt allowed, No. 2 against the run, and No. 1 in sacks.
Fortunately for the visitors, they should be in fine form defensively. Buffalo held its last three opponents of the regular season to a total of 41 points and limited Jacksonville to 24 after the Jaguars consistently scored more than 30 week after week. Denver’s offense has never been its strength and has been even worse since running back JK Dobbins went down with a foot injury in Week 10. Following that development, the Broncos’ EPA per rush stats dropped from No. 14 to No. 25 in the league. While Bo Nix has played well for the most part, he cannot be trusted in a key playoff situation. Only 38 points were scored when these two teams squared off in the wildcard round last year, and another relatively low-scoring affair could lie ahead.
Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos Best Player Prop Bet: Josh Allen Over 35.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Broncos defense is very good, but this isn’t a bad matchup for Allen in terms of his ability to rack up rushing yards. Denver led the league by over a mile, so Allen will likely have to improvise a lot in the backfield. In addition to the designed runs called, the Wyoming product will certainly be forced to tuck it in and run after breaking up pass plays, increasing his total number of carries. Denver ranked in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards allowed to opposing QBs during the regular season.
Allen has had double-digit rushing attempts in three straight playoff games. The former NFL MVP rushed for at least 39 yards in four of his last six postseason appearances, and he rushed for 38 yards or more in four of his last six regular-season outings. In the biggest game of the season so far, count on Allen to take matters into his own hands once again.
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