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Buffalo Bills (-6) vs. Houston Texans [Total: 43.5]
Game overview
The Bills enter this game as the road favorite, a position they have found themselves in often this season. They achieved mixed results, with a 2–2 record against the spread when laying points on the road, a mark that includes two outright losses by multiple scores and a pair of dominant wins.
With consistency being the main issue, it remains to be seen which version of the bills will be appropriate on Thursday evening. The team that managed just 13 points against the Dolphins? Or the one who just raced against the Buccaneers?
While the spotlight is routinely on Josh Allen, the Bills’ offensive efficiency hinges on whether they can run the ball. That will likely be an issue against a Texans defense that allows the fewest yards per carry (3.3) in the NFL. More about that later.
This game marks the Texans’ first appearance this season as a home underdog – a test for a winless team in the betting markets when it gets points in three road games. Houston will look to repeat last season’s game against Buffalo at NRG Stadium, which they considered 1.5-point favorites thanks to a game-winning field goal as time expired.
CJ Stroud remains in the concussion protocol and has already been ruled out for this game, leaving Davis Mills to make his third straight start. Mills has done well to ease the pressure by getting the ball out of his hands quickly, ranking in the top three with an average throw time of 2.59 seconds. That aspect of his game will prove crucial against the Bills, whose defense ranks sixth in pressure.
RB James Cook, Buffalo Bills: Under 75.5 rushing yards (-115)
Cook’s importance to the Bills’ offense cannot be understated. His 968 rushing yards rank second only behind Jonathan Taylor, and his 85.4 PFF rushing grade ranks third. Frankly, his immediate effect on Buffalo’s ability to win games is more impressive. In matchups where the offense generates positive EPA per rush, the Bills are 7-0; if they don’t, they’ll be winless at 0-3.
Stopping Cook will be critical to the Texans defense this week, and while many units have tried and failed, Houston is well equipped to get the job done. The unit leads the NFL in both percentages of run plays, allowing positive EPA and yards per carry allowed (3.3) on designed runs. The Texans’ defense is also tied for allowing the fewest runs of 10 or more yards (11). Houston is the only team in the NFL that does not allow a rush of 25 yards or more. Without the home run plays, it will be tough sledding for Cook, as it will be for many other backs.
That stingy defense has shown up week after week. Houston has yet to surrender 75 rushing yards to a running back this season, with five other players in the top 15 in rushing yards in particular ranking below this mark.
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