Betting on speed in the 2025 Gun Runner Stakes

Steve Asmussen has enjoyed great success in the $100,000 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds, contested for the fifth time on Saturday. The Hall of Fame trainer has won two of the first four editions of the race, a qualifying points race for next spring’s Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.

This year Asmussen is trying to win the Gun Runner #2 Honcho chip (9-2). The improving colt is shaping up to be a strong winner, partly because he is the frontrunner in a race with little pace on paper.

Eight horses have competed in the 2025 Gun Runner, but only two have shown a willingness to set the pace. One of them is Chip Honcho. The other, #5 Crown the Buckeye (5-1), set the pace in his first two sprint starts, but successfully switched to rally tactics in the 1 1/16-mile Best of Ohio Juvenile Stakes, which he won by 4 ½ lengths. If Crown the Buckeye sticks to this proven strategy – rallying from behind during a 1 1/16-mile race – then Chip Honcho has every chance of securing an uncontested lead.

Chip Honcho debuted in a maiden race, sprinting seven-eighths of a mile at Keeneland. The pace was high and he was beaten into the early lead by three rivals. But he passed a few to finish second, having been beaten 2 ¾ lengths by Dr. Kapur, who won in a respectable time.

Chip Honcho’s second start came in a one-mile maiden race over a muddy track at Churchill Downs. This time Chip Honcho had no trouble taking the lead. He posted strong splits of :22.84 and :45.92 before holding off all challengers to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

In the Gun Runner Stakes, Chip Honcho will wear blinders for the first time, which could sharpen his speed even further. He is expected to be ridden by Paco Lopez, who has guided more winners at Fair Grounds this meeting than any other jockey in the first few weeks. If Chip Honcho breaks sharply from post 2, he can run into the lead, clear ground and score a Gun Runner triumph.

#3 Freedom National (7-2) is our second choice. Although he was no match for Chip Honcho in their mutual debut against Dr. Kapur and finished sixth, he improved dramatically three weeks ago in a maiden 1 1/16-mile race at Churchill Downs. He finished quickly from midfield to win by 4 ¼ lengths, suggesting he is a talented colt with a bright future.

We recommend betting on Chip Honcho to win before boxing him in an exacta with Liberty National. If they are 1-2 in any order, you redeem the exacta ticket.

Betting strategy with a $10 budget

$6 to win on #2 Chip Honcho

What to Say at the Betting Window: Fair Grounds, 11th Race, $6 to Win on #2 Chip Honcho

$2 exact: box 2.3 (total cost: $4)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 11th race, $2 exacta: box 2,3

Betting strategy with a $30 budget

$18 to win on #2 Chip Honcho

What to Say at the Betting Window: Fair Grounds, 11th Race, $18 to Win on #2 Chip Honcho

$6 exacta: box 2.3 (total cost: $12)

What to say at the betting window: Fair Grounds, 11th race, $6 exacta box 2.3

Good luck and enjoy the race!