Here is a view of the field from the inside of the (rail) post position. Modus Bestia pulled the rail for trainer Richard Baltas and comes in in top form after winning his last two starts at Del Mar’s dirt track. Spenard comes from Turf Paradise and will have experienced rider Tyler Baze in the saddle. The Spun to Run colt is making his Santa Anita debut and his first start at the seven-furlong Malibu distance. Madaket Road will make its seventh consecutive appearance on the rankings for Bob Baffert with Irad Ortiz Jr. on board for the first time since guiding the colt to a second-place finish in the Pat Day Mile Stakes presented by SAP on the Kentucky Derby undercard at Churchill Downs. Speedy Wilson is no stranger to the winner’s circle, with four wins from eight career starts and a 3-for-3 record at seven furlongs, and regular rider Armando Ayuso retains the title. Midland Money won his career debut by six lengths at Santa Anita in June 2024, resurfaced more than a year later at Saratoga to win first after a long layoff, and posted two straight second-place finishes at the optional allowance claim level. Berlin Wall posted a 7 ¾-length victory last time out at Del Mar and finished in the top three in all four of his career starts at Santa Anita. Trainer Karen Headley sends out Smooth Cruisein for his sixth career start, with regular rider Kyle Frey on board. Cornucopian, the lightest competitor in the Malibu field, will make his first start since April 27 for Baffert. The $1.1 million yearling purchase will be ridden by Flavien Prat for the first time. Barnes, a $3.2 million yearling purchase named for Bob Baffert’s longtime assistant Jimmy Barnes, will make his first start since dominating the Perryville Stakes by 8 ¼ lengths at Keeneland in October. Goal Oriented completes the field and Baffert’s quintet. He returns to Santa Anita for the first time since winning his career debut by 3 ¼ lengths, which also marked his most recent start at a sprint distance.
Analysis and top contenders:
Based on his defeat in the Perryville Stakes, there is little doubt about the ability of Barnesespecially at the Malibu’s seven furlong distance. Expectations for this colt by Into Mischief were high from the start. Barnes made his debut at Churchill Downs in November 2024 with a narrow maiden victory in the special weight before returning to Santa Anita, where he set out to win the San Vicente Stakes by 5 ½ lengths, covering seven furlongs on the sand in 1:22.15 in January this year. After this impressive performance, Barnes has made five consecutive appearances in the rankings. He made his route debut in the San Felipe Stakes in March and set the pace before being caught late by the eventual winner of Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve and Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets, second journalism. He then stretched to 1 1/8 miles for the first time in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing a disappointing fifth, again behind Journalism. After a brief refresh, Barnes resurfaced three and a half months later at his favored seven-furlong distance in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes at Saratoga in August, where he finished a race third just a length and a half behind Patch Adams and Captain Cook. He then broke last in the Gallant Bob Stakes at Parx Racing in September and, despite a late rally, finished fourth by 3 ¾ lengths, falling back to six furlongs. Last time out, Barnes returned to seven furlongs at Perryville and put it all together, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 105 for his authoritative win. Jose Ortiz was aboard both H. Allen Jerkens and Perryville, a notable positive given his apparent affinity for the colt. Since that effort, Barnes has been training sharply, highlighted by a six-furlong bullet in 1:12.80 during his most recent workout at Santa Anita on Dec. 20. He checks a lot of boxes here: he returns to Santa Anita where he won the San Vicente, and he’s back at seven furlongs where he has a record of 2-0-1 in three starts. Based on his 3-1 odds on the morning line, Barnes offers value despite the attention he’s likely to attract.
Midland money provides plenty of intrigue in the Malibu after posting two wins and two seconds in five starts, and will add blinders after running without them in his last two starts for Bob Baffert. Midland Money made his career debut in a dirt sprint first special weight race in June 2024 at Santa Anita and was by far the best, leading by six lengths. After that impressive debut he was sidelined for over a year before resurfacing in August this year, returning in sharp form with a 3 ¼ length win at Saratoga, earning an Equibase Speed Figure of 103 after the long break. Just twenty days later, Midland Money made his graded stakes debut in the aforementioned H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes, finishing sixth. Since then, he has posted two second-place finishes at Del Mar and Santa Anita at the optional allowance claim level, earning an Equibase rating of 107 in each start. Despite failing to find the winner’s circle last time, Midland Money rallied from last to finish strongly, closing ground with every step, but falling just short in the 6 ½ furlong race. The addition of a half-furlong Saturday in the Malibu, combined with the return to blinders, could be just what this Shancelot colt needs. Midland Money also ranks first in late pace rating with a lofty 126.0, while leading the field in average speed with a 103 Equibase rating and an average class of a 106. Jockey Juan Hernandez has teamed with Midland Money for one win (his debut) and two seconds. With tactical versatility and strong finishing ability, he is more than capable of putting in a surprising performance on Sunday.
Horn of plenty will make just his fourth career start to conclude his three-year campaign for trainer Bob Baffert and will surprisingly make his Santa Anita debut in the Malibu. He earned a career-best 108 Equibase Speed Figure when he dominated a six-furlong special weight at Oaklawn Park in his career debut in February. A month later, Cornucopian stretched to 1 1/8 miles for the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, where he was caught in a taxing speed duel and faded to finish fourth. After the Arkansas Derby, Cornucopian was sent to Aqueduct and cut to one mile in an optional claims race in which he picked up the pace, tired, but still finished second as the odds-on favorite. Cornucopian returns to the Malibu after an eight-month layoff and has been training sharply at Santa Anita leading up to this start. Bob Baffert has been effective in graded stakes races, where horses return after a layoff period of more than 180 days. He has won at a 25% rate over the last three years and a strong 69% in-the-money from 16 starts. Flavien Prat takes the mountain for the first time, a significant positive given that Prat and Baffert have teamed up to win a combined 42% of their races over the past year, combining for 11 wins from 26 starts and 81% top-three finishes. Another remarkable aspect is that on Saturday the blinders will have to be removed for the first time in his career. Baffert has excelled in high-stakes races with this move, winning at 37% over the past three years, for seven wins from 19 starts and 63% top-three finishes. While winning the Malibu after the layoff presents a stiff challenge, Cornucopian appears well-positioned to showcase his abilities and make his presence felt on Sunday.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase speed figures in comparable races, does Beast mode (109), Spenard (98), Madaketweg (109), Fast Wilson (105), Berlin Wall (103), Smooth Cruisein (104), and Goal-oriented (110).
Win contenders in preference order:
Barnes
Midland money
Horn of plenty
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