The 1 1/8-mile dirt race for 3-year-olds and older drew a deep and interesting field of nine, led by last year’s winner #6 Rattle and roll (7-2 odds on morning line) and Dubai World Cup 2025, sponsored by the winner Emirates Airline #3 Hit show (3-1). Hit Show defeated Rattle N Roll by a length to take second in the 2025 Preakness Stakes #4 Gosger (4-1) by a length and a quarter in the Grade 3 Hagyard Fayette Stakes at this distance Oct. 25 at Keeneland.
Gosger stepped up to face older horses in the Fayette and held his own. Fellow 3 year olds #9 Size (9-2), winner of the Fasig-Tipton Risen Star Stakes, and #5 Piece of gold (10-1), the winner of the West Virginia Derby, tackles older horses for the first time in the Clark.
I’m hoping the quality pitch and a disappointing recent outing will drive the price up #2 First mission (5-1). The Street Sense 5-year-old was second in the 2023 Clark and owns a pair of victories at this distance in the 2024 Essex Handicap and the 2025 Oaklawn Handicap, both at Oaklawn Park. The race he ran to win the Oaklawn Handicap by two lengths in April would very likely be enough to win here for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat, who are winning at a combined 36% since the start of 2024 and at 30% at Churchill.
First Mission retired after a strong spring, finishing second as 2-5 favorite in the Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes in August before finishing a distant fourth behind Nevada Beach in the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes in September. But he has done very well at Churchill Downs, has trained forward for this race after a brief refresher and should be able to make a good trip, hidden behind a number of competitors who prefer to race at or near the lead. I play First Mission to win at odds of 4-1 or better and put him in an exacta with Rattle N Roll.
Betting strategy with a $10 budget
$10 to win on #2 First mission ($10)
What to say during the betting window: Churchill Downs, race 11, $10 to win at #2
Betting strategy with a $30 budget
$20 to win on first mission #2 ($20)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $20 to win on #2
$5 Exacta Box: #2 First Mission, #6 Rattle N Roll ($10)
What to say at the betting window: Churchill Downs, Race 11, $5 exacta box 2.6
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