Bajaj Auto Q2 Preview: PAT could rise 16% YoY as exports and premium mix drive gains

Bajaj Auto is expected to report a healthy set of numbers for the September quarter (Q2FY26), with revenues likely to rise around 12% year-on-year and profit after tax rising 16%, according to the average of six brokerage estimates. Analysts see a combination of higher exports, a richer product mix and currency tailwinds supporting the quarter, even as domestic demand remains subdued.

Export recovery is leading

Brokers expect Bajaj Auto’s overall volumes to grow about 6% year-on-year this quarter, largely driven by a recovery in exports, especially in Africa and Latin America. Domestic sales, meanwhile, may be down about 5% year-on-year.According to Motilal Oswal, export volumes increased by approximately 24%, while 2W sales increased by 3% and 3W volumes increased by 20%, making the product mix favorable this quarter. The broker expects margins to improve by around 30 basis points to 20%, helped by better mix and currency gains.

A richer product mix supports sales and margins

Analysts expect average selling prices (ASPs) to rise 6-8% year-on-year, led by higher share of premium motorcycles and three-wheelers, along with favorable exchange rate movements. Kotak Institutional Equities expects a 13% increase in sales, citing a strong export-oriented mix and better results. It also sees EBITDA margins improving 70 basis points sequentially, driven by operating leverage, lower EV share and festive demand.

ICICI Securities similarly estimates 14% revenue growth considering 6% volume growth and 8% ASP growth on the back of richer 3W exports and premium bikes. The brokerage expects EBITDA margin growth of around 30 basis points year-on-year, supported by better mix and foreign exchange gains, partially offset by price reductions in select domestic models.

Margins will likely be stable to slightly higher

Most brokers see EBITDA margins between 19.5 and 20%, with operating leverage and favorable exchange rates offsetting weaker domestic volumes. Axis Securities expects revenues to rise 7% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter, with a sequential margin improvement of 46 basis points due to higher exports and cost control efforts.

Nuvama Institutional Equities said the quarter will benefit from a higher share of models above 125cc and a stronger contribution from three-wheelers, which should lead to modest margin expansion. However, it noted that investors should pay attention to commentary on the company’s demand prospects and launch timelines for upcoming products.

Important monitorables

Analysts expect Bajaj Auto to provide updates on momentum in the export market, especially in Africa, domestic motorcycle pricing trends and increase in new launches. The company’s strategy in the field of electric two-wheelers and the festive demand process will also be central.
Ola Electric Q2 results: Downside loss narrows to Rs 418 crore YoY, revenue declines 43%Overall, despite mixed demand trends in the domestic market, Bajaj Auto is expected to post steady growth in Q2FY26, with export recovery, premiumization and currency tailwinds softening earnings.

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