Stage 2: Hailey Baptiste +6.5 games (-106)
Matchup: C. Gauff vs. H. Baptiste
Time: January 22, 11:00 PM (ET)
For the second parry leg we watch the all-American match on the women’s side. Coco Gauff is the big favorite, but Hailey Baptiste has no less than 6.5 games. In a match between compatriots who know each other’s games well, familiarity often ensures tighter matches.
We assign a 58.4% probability that Baptiste will stay within this number, giving a strong lead of 6.9%.
The reasoning: Gauff can be prone to double faults and variance on her serve. Baptiste does not need to win a set to win this leg of ours best parallel; she just needs to keep the sets competitive (e.g. 6-4, 6-3). The data shows that the market is currently over-respecting the gap between the two.
Leg 3: Anastasia Potapova +6.5 games (-112)
Matchup: A. Sabalenka vs. A. Potapova
Time: January 22, 8:30 PM (ET)
At the same time, we still have a high-quality underdog game. Aryna Sabalenka is a force of nature, but Anastasia Potapova is a fighter who thrives in intense fights. Playing 6.5 matches against anyone – even Sabalenka – is a lot of real estate in professional tennis.
Our simulations give Potapova a cover probability of 56.8%, giving a lead of 3.9%.
The reasoning: Sabalenka’s aggressive style obviously leads to short points, but can also lead to unforced errors if Potapova extends the rallies. By taking the points we add a layer of insurance to our parry todayrelying on Potapova’s grit to keep the score respectable.
Stage 4: Alexander Zverev -5.5 games (-105)
Matchup: A. Zverev vs. C. Norrie
Time: January 23, 3:30 AM (ET)
We close the parry ticket in the early morning hours with Alexander Zverev against Cam Norrie. Zverev’s form has been imperious, and while Norrie is a tactician, he lacks the weapons to hurt Zverev on these courts. The spread is -5.5, but the odds are almost even money (-105), which offers tremendous value.
Our model sees Zverev covering 61.1% of the time, giving a significant lead of 9.9%.
The reasoning: Norrie’s game relies on consistency, but Zverev does everything Norrie does, only with more power. We expect Zverev to overpower the Brit and secure a comfortable victory. With an almost 10% edge on these odds, this might be the smartest addition to any tennis parlay for day 6.
Australian Open 2026 Parlay today
Leg 1: Medvedev -5.5 (-135)
Leg 2: Baptiste +6.5 (-106)
Leg 3: Potapova +6.5 (-112)
Leg 4: Zverev -5.5 (-105)
Parlay Odds: +1098
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