The expert squad is back for the fourth round of the Australian Open on Sunday, when a number of blockbuster fights are scheduled: Daniil Medvedev against Learner Tien and Alex de Minaur against Alexander Bublik. A panel of two teams makes its predictions.
(11) Daniil Medvedev vs. (25) Student Ten
Ricky: Medvedev and Tien played the match of the tournament 12 months ago, when Tien pulled off a 6-3, 7-6(4), 6-7(8), 1-6, 7-6(10-7) upset. Well, the Medvedev of 2025 isn’t coming through that door. The three-time Aussie Open runner-up is 22-4 in his last 26 matches, a run that includes two titles – ending a drought that has lasted more than two years. Tien is also playing great, having capped off last season with a win in the NextGen ATP Finals and showing no signs of slowing down in ’26. The result should be another epic match between these two counter-punchers. I’m giving Medvedev a very small advantage this time. First, the revenge factor is real. Secondly, in busy moments he can win a free point with a big first serve – and also return from a million miles behind the baseline and force Tien to play another long rally. Medvedev in 5: 4-6, 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(10-7).
Cheryl: The Australian Open round of 16 will be held this year. Normally a match between the world number 12 and number 29 wouldn’t be the most highly anticipated match of the tournament so far – but here we are. This is partly because Med was racked up about $453,615 in fines last year for things like kicking a camera, throwing his racket at a billboard and hitting his equipment bag. He also skipped his post-match presser after losing. Frankly, Medvedev has a problem with Tien’s play more than anything. The American plays pure tennis with a high percentage. And that means looooonngggg points. Ten just doesn’t donate to the Medvedev cause. But this time I’ll give the Russian the nod. He has already tripled the number of Grand Slam match victories he achieved last season and it appears the split with coach Gilles Cervara was just what the doctor ordered. Medvedev in 4: 7-6(5), 3-6, 6-2, 7-6(11).
(10) Alexander Bublik vs. (6) Alex de Minaur
Ricky: This could be the second best match of the tournament (after Medvedev vs. Tien!). Bublik continues to play fantastic tennis; De Minaur looks as solid as ever and has the advantage of all of Australia behind him. Something has to happen on Sunday – and I’m not sure what it will be. In perhaps any other tournament, I would probably choose Bublik’s bigger game. However, in the Land Down Under, I cannot face the Demon. The world number 6 was excellent against Frances Tiafoe on Friday night and I think the kind of defense on display can ultimately break Bublik down over the course of five sets. And even with the Kazakh’s new and improved mental game, the crowd could still be a factor. De Minaur in 5: 3-6, 6-3, 7-5, 6-7(6), 6-3.
Cheryl: I don’t want to speak for Alex de Minaur, but I can’t imagine him being happy to see Alexander Bublik on the other side of the net. First off, Bublik seems to have found some unexpected favor with the tennis gods because he just won’t lose at the moment. And I mean that a bit literally. He is 7-0 in 2026. Certainly, De Minaur will have the home crowd firmly on his side. But there’s simply no denying that the best of Bublik is too good for the best of De Minaur. The Australian had victories in his first three matches with Bublik, but that was back when the most notable part of the Kazakh’s game was his inconsistency. Unless old Bublik shows up, I don’t see De Minaur pulling this one out. Bublik and 4: 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-1.
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