Australia has been blessed by England’s disarray but can put its own stamp on Ashes victory | Geoff Lemon

IIf you had told Australian observers six months ago that their Test team in Sydney would open the batting with Travis Head, with Jake Weatherald, Usman Khawaja on five, no Cameron Green, and some bowling combination of Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson, Todd Murphy and Brendan Doggett, they would have expected disaster. Fifth Ashes Tests is the land of Scott Borthwick, of Boyd Rankin and Mason Crane: fringe players get a glimpse of the wreckage after a series crashed and burned.

Khawaja was one of those, which was so much thought about in the debut this week following the announcement of his retirement: the match in which he replaced the injured Ricky Ponting after two Australian one-innings defeats, only to feature in a third.

Instead, the Australians won this series comfortably before Christmas, despite a series of injuries and health problems that should have made their campaign chaotic. Three of the Big Four bowlers are on the rehabilitation list, stand-in captain Steve Smith missed the series decider, Khawaja’s absence turned the batting order upside down and two key fit players in Green and Marnus Labuschagne have underperformed. Yet the home team is blessed with even greater disarray in their approach to the visitors.

Green may still play in Sydney, but after offering minimal bowling to compensate for insufficient runs and a tired recent approach at the crease, fellow all-rounder Beau Webster could be given the spot instead. That, in turn, can influence other selection decisions. Neither side will name a team until the toss, spooked by the two-day nonsense in Melbourne and the very normal shade of green on the field in Sydney, prompting consideration of another high-tempo match.

England’s willingness to continue pretending that Will Jacks is a Test spinner is one thing, given that they want his batsman, and that their net sessions and tour games have apparently taken away any confidence in Shoaib Bashir. Australia’s increasing fascination with playing four fast bowlers – as in three of their last five starts – is stranger given the chance now to get matches in off-spinner Murphy as Nathan Lyon’s likely successor.

Murphy hit the net in the last training session, a good sign that he is likely to play. But whether or not that happens, the fact that both teams are even considering competing in a Sydney Test without a specialist spinner shows how far the current dynamics of cricket in Australia have shifted from the art, something that can only be to the detriment of the game.

Even on surfaces suitable for fast bowling, spin can almost always play a role for variety, and with some rain forecast as usual in the week after New Year, this match has the potential to continue well into the five days. Both teams looked flat during their battle at the MCG, perhaps after the series was decided a few days earlier, but the extra time off should have given them time to recover. Besides the normal pride of playing for the national team wherever and whenever, both teams have other things to play for.

England want the 3-2 scoreline which will burnish their early setback, allowing them to rewrite this series as the series that got away, and continue their good vibes project without too much structural reinvention. Australia, according to coach Andrew McDonald, is taking a very prosaic stance of winning the Ashes but the next task is to maximize the World Test Championship winning percentage. The home team has lost a chance for a perfect return in Melbourne and does not want to damage their figures further.

Finally, there will obviously be a desire to send Khawaja off on a high note, as someone whose career is so closely linked to the cricket field in his original hometown. The unlikely debut in 2011, the site of his two-ton comeback in 2021, the ground where he encouraged his captain to feature against South Africa despite being 195 not out.

The SCG is now the place where Khawaja will leave the field for the last time as an Australian cricketer. If the series ended at 4-1, that would be a win, while 3-2 would be a source of some annoyance. With these two teams, we at least know that serious rain is the only thing that can cause a draw.